Races · Governor · 2026 · Pennsylvania
Governor · open seat
Josh Shapiro vs Stacy Garrity
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
Polling average rates this race Safe D (D+21.1, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+20.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+9.1 (10th pctile) to D+31.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 14.7% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Polling momentum is moving toward D at +2.7pp/wk over the 30d window — a real shift, not noise.
Uncertainty score: 66/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (22.0pp); models disagree by 15.3pp. Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-d · high-tipping · trending-d · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
66
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (22.0pp).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement77
15.3pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution77 / 100
Measured15.3pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion26
2.6pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution26 / 100
Measured2.6pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity13
7 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution13 / 100
Measured7 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +20.1
80% CI: D +9.1 → D +31.1 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 16 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +4.8
80% CI R +9.3 → D +9.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +19.2
80% CI D +17.6 → D +20.8
CV MAE 1.22
consensusMarket-implied
D +16.0
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 95¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 43 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 95% · polls 52%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
3 polls · through Jun 14, 2026 · latest Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research
Josh Shapiro
VoteHub50.3%
VoteHub
Polling average50.3%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg51.9%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average51.9%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 1.6 pt below our average
Stacy Garrity
VoteHub29.3%
VoteHub
Polling average29.3%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg29.2%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average29.2%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.1 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 3 polls (through Jun 14, 2026): Josh Shapiro 50.3%, Stacy Garrity 29.3%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 16 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 26 | Bravo GroupFor · Bravo Group | 644 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 54 · 29 |
| Jun 24, 26 | PennLiveFor · Bravo Group | 644 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 54 · 29 |
| Jun 17, 26 | Franklin & MarshallFor · Franklin & Marshall College Poll | 546 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 50 · 28 |
| Jun 13, 26 | Franklin & Marshall CollegeFor · Franklin & Marshall College Poll | 546 · RV | D-LEAN | D +4.87 tracked | +4.2d lean | 50 · 28 |
| Jun 10, 26 | MAD Global Strategy | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 48 · 31 |
| May 31, 26 | Bravo GroupFor · Bravo Group | 684 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 53 · 29 |
| May 23, 26 | PennLive | 683 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 53 · 29 |
| Mar 31, 26 | Susquehanna Polling | 700 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 58 · 36 |
| Mar 28, 26 | Susquehanna Polling & ResearchFor · Internal R-aligned | 700 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.07 tracked | +2.3d lean | 58 · 36 |
| Mar 4, 26 | Franklin & Marshall | 834 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 48 · 28 |
Endorsements · 29 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet8
21
Endorsements tracked
Josh Shapiro8 · 28%
Stacy Garrity21 · 72%
Total29
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RStacy Garrity21 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials19
Federal 9State 9Local 0
Elected officials · 19
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Jesse Topper · minority leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2025–present) from HD-78 (2014–present)
- Joe Pittman · majority leader of the Pennsylvania Senate (2022–present) from SD-41 (2019–present)
- Tom Corbett · former governor of Pennsylvania (2011–2015)
- Dave Sunday · Pennsylvania attorney general (2025–present)
- Dan Meuser · PA-09 (2019–present)
- Doug Mastriano · SD-33 (2019–present) and gubernatorial nominee in 2022
- Glenn Thompson · PA-15 (2009–present)
- Jim Struzzi · HD-62 (2018–present)
- Lloyd Smucker · PA-11 (2017–present)
- Martina White · HD-170 (2015–present)
- Rob Bresnahan · PA-08 (2025–present)
- Scott Martin · SD-13 (2017–present)
- Scott Perry · PA-10 (2013–present)
- Dave McCormick · Pennsylvania (2025–present)
- Kim Ward · president pro tempore of the Pennsylvania Senate (2022–present) from SD-39 (2009–present)
- Rick Santorum · former Pennsylvania (1995–2007)
- Ryan Mackenzie · PA-07 (2025-present)
- Timothy DeFoor · auditor general of Pennsylvania (2021–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Maggie's List
- Pennsylvania Republican Party
DJosh Shapiro8 endorsers
Most notable · Austin Davis · incumbent lieutenant governor (2023–present)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- American Federation of Teachers · Pennsylvania
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Pennsylvania Conference of Teamsters
- Pennsylvania Democratic Party
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Austin Davis · incumbent lieutenant governor (2023–present)
Other1
Other · 1
- AFT · PA
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Josh Shapiro
Receipts
$35.0M
Disburse
$10.5M
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D3
Safe D · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
11 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
11 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles11
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.27
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.27
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 27%
Neutral 73%
27% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets27%
Neutral73%
R-leaning outlets0%
27% of outlets classified by editorial lean
M
Pa. poll shows Shapiro far ahead as Trump sinks in approval
C
New Poll: Pennsylvanians Reject Shapiro's Budget, Demand More Educational Choice, and Oppose Costly Energy Mandates
N
Pennsylvania Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
A
Pennsylvania Primary Results 2026: House and Governor
M
Pa. poll shows Shapiro far ahead as Trump sinks in approval
P
F&M Poll: Pennsylvanians Pessimistic About Trump, Economy and State of Federal Government
A
F&M Poll: Shapiro leads Garrity despite voter’s economic pessimism
W
F&M poll shows Shapiro ahead as Pennsylvania voters grow more negative on economy, Trump
I
New Pa. poll shows Shapiro leading handily against Garrity, trouncing Trump in popularity
F
Poll: Shapiro maintains lead over Garrity as public opinion sours on economy, Trump
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified14 / 16deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements31 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage11 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks