Races · Governor · 2026 · PA
Governor · open seat

Josh Shapiro vs Stacy Garrity

← OR Governor RI Governor →
Safe D D +20.0 · 176 days to election · 7 polls · 4 markets Last poll 42d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 54% D · market gap 40pp

safe-d · high-tipping · trending-d · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +1.5
80% CI: R +16.0 → D +19.0 · win prob 54%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used7
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.6
80% CI D +4.6 → D +13.7
CV MAE 7.21
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +17.3
80% CI D +15.5 → D +19.1
CV MAE 1.38
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +1.5
80% CI R +16.0 → D +19.0
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 7 results

7 of 7 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
3/29/2026Susquehanna Polling & Research1.12neutral(D+0.1)700±3.7LV
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Shapiro 58.0 · Stacy Garrity 36.0pollarch
3/1/2026Franklin & Marshall College0.91L(D+4.4)834±4.1RV
70d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+2
  • 70d old
    Poll was fielded 70 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+4.7pt vs editors
    Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Josh Shapiro 48.0 · Stacy Garrity 28.0pollarch
2/23/2026Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)836±4.7RV
76d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 76d old
    Poll was fielded 76 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Shapiro 55.0 · Stacy Garrity 37.0pollarch
9/29/2025Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1579±3.3RV
223d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 223d old
    Poll was fielded 223 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • n=1,579
    Sample size of 1,579 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Shapiro 55.0 · Stacy Garrity 39.0pollarch
9/29/2025Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1579±3.3RV
223d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 223d old
    Poll was fielded 223 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • n=1,579
    Sample size of 1,579 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Shapiro 56.0 · Doug Mastriano 39.0pollarch
9/28/2025Susquehanna Polling & Research1.12neutral(D+0.1)700±3.7LV
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned224d old+2
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 224d old
    Poll was fielded 224 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Shapiro 54.0 · Stacy Garrity 36.0pollarch
9/28/2025Susquehanna Polling & Research1.12neutral(D+0.1)704±3.7LV
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned224d old+2
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 224d old
    Poll was fielded 224 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Shapiro 55.0 · Doug Mastriano 37.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 7 total
Josh Shapiro (D)
7 endorsements · source
Elected officials (1)
  • Austin Davis — incumbent lieutenant governor (2023–present) [ 15 ]
Organizations / unions (4)
  • American Federation of Teachers — Pennsylvania [ 10 ]
  • Jewish Democratic Council of America — [ 13 ]
  • Pennsylvania Conference of Teamsters — [ 11 ]
  • Pennsylvania Democratic Party — [ 14 ]
Other (2)
  • AFT — PA [ 10 ]
  • Giffords — [ 12 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Mar 11 +20.0 +18.0 +2.0
Inside Elections Likely D Aug 28 +20.0 +9.0 +11.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely D Sep 4 +20.0 +9.0 +11.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 6 weeks ago (3/29/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Safe D D+20.0 via polls

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