Races · Governor · 2026 · Oregon
Governor · incumbent running
Tina Kotek vs Christine Drazan
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 9d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 93% D
Polling average rates this race Lean D (D+3.3, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+1.7 (10th pctile) to D+23.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 93% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 14.9% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 70/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (22.0pp); models disagree by 9.2pp. Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · lean-d · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
70
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (22.0pp).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement46
9.2pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution46 / 100
Measured9.2pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion20
2.0pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution20 / 100
Measured2.0pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +12.7
80% CI: D +1.7 → D +23.7 · win prob 93%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 4 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +3.5
80% CI R +25.7 → D +7.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +4.7
80% CI D +3.0 → D +6.3
CV MAE 1.30
consensusMarket-implied
D +11.6
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 89¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 45 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 89% · polls 45%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Feb 4, 2026 · latest FM3 Research
Tina Kotek
VoteHub45.0%
VoteHub
Polling average45.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg44.5%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average44.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.5 pt above our average
Christine Drazan
VoteHub40.0%
VoteHub
Polling average40.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg45.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average45.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 5.0 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Feb 4, 2026): Tina Kotek 45.0%, Christine Drazan 40.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11 | Hoffman Research GroupFor · Internal R-aligned | 603 · LV | R-LEAN | — | — | 45 · 45 |
| Feb 12 | FM3 Research+1 | 1,065 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | -9.6noisy | 45 · 40 |
| Feb 3 | FM3 Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 1,065 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | -9.6noisy | 45 · 40 |
| Jan 27 | FM3 Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 1,065 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | -9.6noisy | 45 · 40 |
Endorsements · 33 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet29
4
Endorsements tracked
Tina Kotek29 · 88%
Christine Drazan4 · 12%
Total33
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DTina Kotek29 endorsers
Most notable · Julie Fahey · speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives (2024–present) from the 14th district (2017–present)
Organizations16
Organizations · 16
- EMILYs List
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Local 48
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades
- Ironworkers · Local 29
- LGBTQ+ Victory Fund
- Oregon AFL-CIO
- Oregon Building Trades Unions
- Oregon Education Association
- Oregon Nurses Association
- SEIU · Local 503
- SMART Union
- Western States Regional Council of Carpenters
- Working Families Party · s Party
Elected officials13
Federal 8State 1Local 2
Elected officials · 13
- Julie Fahey · speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives (2024–present) from the 14th district (2017–present)
- Dan Rayfield · attorney general of Oregon (2024–present)
- Andrea Salinas · OR-06 (2023–present)
- Janelle Bynum · OR-05 (2025–present)
- Maxine Dexter · OR-03 (2025–present)
- Suzanne Bonamici · OR-01 (2012–present)
- Val Hoyle · OR-04 (2023–present)
- Christina Stephenson · labor commissioner of Oregon (2023–present)
- Elizabeth Steiner · treasurer of Oregon (2025–present)
- Jeff Merkley · Oregon (2009–present)
- Keith Wilson · mayor of Portland (2025–present)
- Rob Wagner · president of the Oregon Senate (2023–present) from the 19th district (2018–present)
- Ron Wyden · Oregon (1996–present)
RChristine Drazan4 endorsers
Most notable · The Oregonian
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- The Oregonian
- Willamette Week
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Oregon Farm Bureau
- Right to Life · to Life
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D2
Safe D · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Lean DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
43 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles43
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.02
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.33 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.02
Week-over-weekshift +0.33 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 2%
Neutral 98%
2% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets2%
Neutral98%
R-leaning outlets0%
2% of outlets classified by editorial lean
C
Oregon's Tina Kotek has lowest approval rating of all 50 governors, poll finds
N
Who Is Ahead in the Oregon Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
K
Governor Kotek praises Central Oregon's collaborative efforts and accomplishments in reducing homelessness
C
Oregon Republicans handed Drazan another shot to beat Kotek. Will this time be different?
K
Council appointed by Gov. Kotek to present advice on how to increase prosperity in Oregon
K
Council appointed by Gov. Kotek to present advice on how to increase prosperity in Oregon
O
‘Prosperity Council’ wish list for Gov. Tina Kotek: lower taxes, less regulation, more land
C
Drazan wins Republican primary for Oregon governor, teeing up rematch with Kotek
C
Oregon GOP governor hopefuls to face off in first major debate this week
K
Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek appoints Nathan Lichvarcik to Lane County Circuit Court bench
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified4 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements36 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks