Races · Governor · 2026 · OR

Governor · open seat

Tina Kotek vs Ed Diehl

← OK Governor PA Governor →

Likely D D +7.0 · 176 days to election · 3 polls · 4 markets Last poll 102d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 3 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 86% D

likely-d · high-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

D +15.0

80% CI: R +2.5 → D +32.5 · win prob 86%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	3
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +12.6

80% CI R +0.1 → D +12.7

CV MAE 7.21

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

D +7.0

80% CI D +4.7 → D +9.3

CV MAE 1.81

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

D +15.0

80% CI R +2.5 → D +32.5

CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 3 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:3 of 3 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
1/28/2026	FM3 Research	1.00	L	1065	±3.1	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+4 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 102d old Poll was fielded 102 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Tina Kotek 43.0 · Ed Diehl 37.0	poll arch
1/28/2026	FM3 Research	1.00	L	1065	±3.1	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+4 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 102d old Poll was fielded 102 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Tina Kotek 45.0 · Christine Drazan 40.0	poll arch
1/28/2026	FM3 Research	1.00	L	1065	±3.1	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+4 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 102d old Poll was fielded 102 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Tina Kotek 45.0 · Chris Dudley 35.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 28 total

Tina Kotek (D)

28 endorsements · source

Elected officials (4)

Dan Rayfield — attorney general of Oregon (2024–present) [ 8 ]
Julie Fahey — speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives (2024–present) from the 14th district (2017–present) [ 9 ]
Keith Wilson — mayor of Portland (2025–present) [ 10 ]
Rob Wagner — president of the Oregon Senate (2023–present) from the 19th district (2018–present) [ 9 ]

Organizations / unions (9)

Christina Stephenson — labor commissioner of Oregon (2023–present) [ 9 ]
International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers — Local 48 [ 8 ]
International Union of Painters and Allied Trades — [ 9 ]
Oregon AFL-CIO — [ 11 ]
Oregon Education Association — [ 16 ]
Oregon Nurses Association — [ 8 ]
SMART Union — [ 9 ]
Western States Regional Council of Carpenters — [ 9 ]
Working Families Party — s Party [ 16 ]

Other (15)

Andrea Salinas — OR-06 (2023–present) [ 8 ]
EMILYs List — [ 13 ]
Elizabeth Steiner — treasurer of Oregon (2025–present) [ 9 ]
Giffords — [ 14 ]
Human Rights Campaign — [ 9 ]
Ironworkers — Local 29 [ 9 ]
Janelle Bynum — OR-05 (2025–present) [ 8 ]
Jeff Merkley — Oregon (2009–present) [ 8 ]
LGBTQ+ Victory Fund — [ 15 ]
Maxine Dexter — OR-03 (2025–present) [ 8 ]
Oregon Building Trades Unions — [ 8 ]
Ron Wyden — Oregon (1996–present) [ 8 ]
SEIU — Local 503 [ 12 ]
Suzanne Bonamici — OR-01 (2012–present) [ 8 ]
Val Hoyle — OR-04 (2023–present) [ 8 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe D	Sep 11	+7.0	+18.0	-11.0
Inside Elections	Safe D	Aug 28	+7.0	+18.0	-11.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	Sep 4	+7.0	+9.0	-2.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 3 months ago (1/28/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/3/2026 Likely D D+7.0 via polls