Races · Governor · 2024 · Vermont

Governor · open seat

Esther Charlestin vs Phil Scott

← Utah Governor Washington Governor →

Safe RR +41.2 forecast· 2 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Charlestin (D)
99% Scott (R)
Win probability
Esther Charlestin1% (D)
Phil Scott99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +41.2
80% CIR+53.2 → R+29.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +41.2 · 80% CI R+53.2 → R+29.2
Actual result R+51.6 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+14) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+41.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+53.2 (10th pctile) to R+29.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +41.2

80% CI: R +53.2 → R +29.2 · win prob 1%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	2
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+51.6
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
05101520253035404550556065SCOTT 64.5CHARLESTIN 26.5HOYT 2.0AUG '24SEP '24NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 2 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Nov 1	University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire	1,167 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.912 tracked	+0.3aligned	26 · 65
Aug 18	University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire	924 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.912 tracked	+0.3aligned	28 · 56

Endorsements · 1 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

1Charlestin · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Esther Charlestin1 · 100%
Phil Scott0 · 0%
Total1
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DEsther Charlestin1 endorser

Most notable · Vermont Democratic Party

Organizations1

RPhil Scott0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

IKevin Hoyt0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

CNalysis

Safe R

Aug 16

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 12

Elections Daily

Safe R

Jul 11

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jul 13

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified2 / 2deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements1 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks