Races · Governor · 2022 · Tennessee
Governor · open seat
Tennessee Governor
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+33.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+45.1 (10th pctile) to R+21.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +33.1
80% CI: R +45.1 → R +21.1 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 3 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | Bill Lee +32.0 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | RABA Research | 549 · unknown | NEUTRAL | — | — | — |
| Jul 30 | RABA Research | 549 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 28 · 52 |
| May 13 | Vanderbilt University | 1,000 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 48 |
Endorsements · 5 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet3
Endorsements tracked
Jason Martin3 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJason Martin3 endorsers
Most notable · Lee Harris · mayor of Shelby County (2018–present) and former Minority Leader of the Tennessee Senate from the 29th district (2015–2018)
Elected officials3
Federal 1State 0Local 2
Elected officials · 3
- Lee Harris · mayor of Shelby County (2018–present) and former Minority Leader of the Tennessee Senate from the 29th district (2015–2018)
- Steve Cohen · U.S. representative for Tennessee's 9th congressional district (2007–present)
- W. W. Herenton · former mayor of Memphis (1992–2009)
REPBill Lee2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Other1
Other · 1
- Nikki Haley · former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018)
DEMJason Brantley Martin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Mar 3
- Elections Daily · Nov 6
- 538 · Aug 3
- Inside Elections · Jul 21
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 28
The Cook Political Report
Safe RElections Daily
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements5 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks