Races · Governor · 2022 · South Dakota

Governor · open seat

Jamie Smith vs Kristi Noem

← South Carolina Governor Tennessee Governor →

Safe RR +23.4 forecast· 2 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Smith (D)
99% Noem (R)
Win probability
Jamie Smith1% (D)
Kristi Noem99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +23.4
80% CIR+35.4 → R+11.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +23.4 · 80% CI R+35.4 → R+11.4
Actual result Kristi NoemLarry Rhoden +26.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+16) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.4 (10th pctile) to R+11.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +23.4

80% CI: R +35.4 → R +11.4 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	2
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Kristi NoemLarry Rhoden +26.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
354045505560NOEM 53.6SMITH 37.7OCT '22OCT '22OCT '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 2 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Oct 20	Emerson College+2For · Emerson Polling	1,500 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	37 · 56
Oct 9	South Dakota State University	565 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	41 · 45

Endorsements · 3 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

Noem · 100%3
Endorsements tracked
Jamie Smith0 · 0%
Kristi Noem3 · 100%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RKristi Noem3 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)

Elected officials3

Federal 2State 1Local 0

DJamie Smith0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Mar 3

Elections Daily

Safe R

Nov 6

538

Safe R

Oct 4

Inside Elections

Safe R

Mar 3

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jan 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified2 / 2deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks