Races · Governor · 2022 · South Carolina

Governor · open seat

Joe Cunningham vs Henry McMaster

← Rhode Island Governor South Dakota Governor →

Safe RR +16.3 forecast· 4 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Cunningham (D)
99% McMaster (R)
Win probability
Joe Cunningham1% (D)
Henry McMaster99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +16.3
80% CIR+28.3 → R+4.3
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +16.3 · 80% CI R+28.3 → R+4.3
Actual result Henry McMasterPamela Evette +17.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+16.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+28.3 (10th pctile) to R+4.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +16.3

80% CI: R +28.3 → R +4.3 · win prob 1%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	4
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Henry McMasterPamela Evette +17.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
3640444852MCMASTER 49.4CUNNINGHAM 43.6AUG '22AUG '22SEP '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 4 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Sep 6	Echelon Insights+1	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.36 tracked	+3.3noisy	44 · 50
Aug 29	Impact Research+1For · Cunningham campaign	700 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+10.7d lean	42 · 49
Aug 27	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,071 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	43 · 51
Aug 24	Blueprint Polling	721 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.4d lean	39 · 50

Endorsements · 23 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

15Cunningham · 65%
McMaster · 35%8
Endorsements tracked
Joe Cunningham15 · 65%
Henry McMaster8 · 35%
Total23
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DJoe Cunningham15 endorsers

Most notable · Todd Rutherford · minority leader of the South Carolina House of Representatives (2013–present)

Elected officials8

Federal 1State 6Local 0

Other7

RHenry McMaster8 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)

Elected officials5

Federal 2State 3Local 0

Organizations2

Other1

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jul 25

Elections Daily

Safe R

Nov 6

538

Safe R

Jul 30

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jul 21

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 28

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Safe Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified4 / 4deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements23 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks