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Races · Governor · 2022 · Minnesota
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
Governor · open seat

Minnesota Governor

← Michigan GovernorNebraska Governor →
Lean DD +3.4 forecast· 21 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
72% (D)
28% Gazelka (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +3.4 · 80% CI R+8.6 → D+15.4
Actual result Tim WalzPeggy Flanagan +7.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 72% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+3.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+8.6 (10th pctile) to D+15.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 72% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +3.4
80% CI: R +8.6 → D +15.4 · win prob 72%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used21
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultTim WalzPeggy Flanagan +7.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

Latest poll · 7 candidates

This race has 7 polled candidates — too many for a readable time-series chart. Showing the latest aggregated polling average per candidate instead. The All polls table below has full per-poll detail.

DEMTim Walz48.8%
REPScott Jensen42.2%
RRich Stanek37.0%
RMike Murphy36.0%
RKendall Qualls35.0%
RPaul Gazelka34.0%
RNeil Shah31.0%

All polls · 21 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 27, 22SurveyUSA836 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned—
Oct 19, 22St. Cloud State University219 · unknownNEUTRAL———
Oct 17, 22Trafalgar Group1,091 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean—
Oct 11, 22Change Research+11,585 · unknownD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy—
Oct 1, 22SurveyUSA604 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned—
Sep 24, 22Cygnal600 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned—
Sep 13, 22Trafalgar Group1,079 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean—
Sep 12, 22Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy800 · unknownNEUTRAL———
May 9, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA513 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned39
May 9, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA513 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned36
May 9, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA513 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned35
May 9, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA513 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned34
May 9, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA513 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned34
May 9, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA513 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned37
Jan 29, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA501 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned37
Jan 29, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA501 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned35
Jan 29, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA501 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned35
Jan 29, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA501 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned34
Dec 5, 21SurveyUSA+1506 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned34
Dec 5, 21SurveyUSA+1506 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned36
Dec 5, 21SurveyUSA+1506 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned31
· 21 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 7 candidates with no endorsements yet
REPScott Jensen0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DEMTim Walz0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RPaul Gazelka0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMike Murphy0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RKendall Qualls0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RNeil Shah0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RRich Stanek0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D4
Lean D1
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Mar 3
Elections Daily
Likely D
Nov 6
538
Likely D
Oct 16
Inside Elections
Lean D
Nov 2
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Oct 11

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified13 / 21deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks