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Races · Governor · 2022 · Illinois
Governor · open seat

JB Pritzker vs Darren Bailey

← Idaho GovernorKansas Governor →
Safe DD +19.9 forecast· 23 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Pritzker (D)
1% Bailey (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +19.9 · 80% CI D+7.9 → D+31.9
Actual result JB PritzkerJuliana Stratton +12.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+7) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+19.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+7.9 (10th pctile) to D+31.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +19.9
80% CI: D +7.9 → D +31.9 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used23
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultJB PritzkerJuliana Stratton +12.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

051015202530354045505560PRITZKER 51.1PRITZKER 48.0BAILEY 40.0SCHLUTER 4.3SEP '22OCT '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 23 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 6, 22Victory Research+11,208 · LVNEUTRALD +1.23 tracked-9.1decoupled49 · 42
Nov 5, 22Research Co.+1For · Research Co.450 · LVNEUTRALD +1.450 tracked-0.7aligned56 · 37
Nov 5, 22Victory Research1,208 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.23 tracked-9.1decoupled42
Oct 24, 22CiviqsFor · Civiqs659 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean56 · 39
Oct 24, 22University of Illinois Springfield1,000 · LVNEUTRAL——55 · 40
Oct 23, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned50 · 41
Oct 14, 22Osage Research600 · LVR-LEAN——44 · 42
Oct 13, 22Osage Research600 · unknownR-LEAN——42
Oct 10, 22Public Policy Polling+2For · Sun-Times770 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy49 · 34
Oct 10, 22Research America+11,000 · RVNEUTRAL—-5.0noisy50 · 28
Sep 26, 22Fabrizio, Lee & Associates+1800 · LVNEUTRAL—+3.9decoupled50 · 45
Sep 25, 22Fabrizio, Lee & Associates800 · unknownNEUTRAL—+3.9decoupled40
Sep 22, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned51 · 36
Sep 9, 22Osage Research500 · LVR-LEAN——44 · 37
Sep 8, 22Osage Research500 · unknownR-LEAN——37
Aug 31, 22Victory Research+11,208 · LVNEUTRALD +1.23 tracked-9.1decoupled47 · 36
Aug 27, 22Victory Geek512 · LVD-LEAN——56 · 38
Jul 18, 22Victory Research+11,208 · LVNEUTRALD +1.23 tracked-9.1decoupled49 · 39
Jul 18, 22Victory Research+11,208 · LVNEUTRALD +1.23 tracked-9.1decoupled47
Jun 20, 22Fabrizio, Lee & Associates+1800 · LVNEUTRAL—+3.9decoupled50 · 43
Jun 20, 22Fabrizio, Lee & Associates+1800 · LVNEUTRAL—+3.9decoupled47
Jan 19, 22Victory Research+11,208 · LVNEUTRALD +1.23 tracked-9.1decoupled55 · 27
Nov 9, 21Victory Geek800 · LVD-LEAN——49
· 23 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 8 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
8Pritzker · 100%
DJB Pritzker8 endorsers
Most notable · Daily Herald
Other5
Organizations2
Newspapers1
RDarren Bailey0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LScott Schluter0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DEMJ.B. Pritzker0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Mar 3
Elections Daily
Safe D
Nov 6
538
Safe D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe D
Mar 3
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 28

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified19 / 23deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements8 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks