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Races · Governor · 2022 · Iowa
Governor · open seat

Deidre DeJear vs Kim Reynolds

← Hawaii GovernorIdaho Governor →
Safe RR +24.8 forecast· 11 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% DeJear (D)
99% Reynolds (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +24.8 · 80% CI R+36.8 → R+12.8
Actual result Kim ReynoldsAdam Gregg +18.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+24.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+36.8 (10th pctile) to R+12.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +24.8
80% CI: R +36.8 → R +12.8 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used11
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultKim ReynoldsAdam Gregg +18.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

051015202530354045505560REYNOLDS 55.7DEJEAR 37.8STEWART 3.5JUL '22SEP '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 11 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 2Selzer & Co.+1801 · LVNEUTRAL—+11.8d lean37 · 54
Oct 26Cygnal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned38 · 57
Oct 24CiviqsFor · Civiqs623 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean42 · 54
Oct 18The Tarrance Group+2600 · LVR-LEAND +1.13 tracked+0.3noisy39 · 56
Oct 11Selzer & Co.+1For · The Des Moines Register620 · LVNEUTRAL—+11.8d lean35 · 52
Oct 3Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling959 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned36 · 53
Oct 3Cygnal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned38 · 59
Jul 13Cygnal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned41 · 56
Jul 12Selzer & Co.+1For · The Des Moines Register597 · LVNEUTRAL—+11.8d lean31 · 48
Mar 1Selzer & Co.+1612 · LVNEUTRAL—+11.8d lean43 · 51
Feb 21Cygnal610 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned38 · 55
· 11 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
2DeJear · 100%
DDeidre DeJear2 endorsers
Most notable · Elizabeth Warren · U.S. senator from Massachusetts
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Other1
RKim Reynolds0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LRick Stewart0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jul 25
Elections Daily
Safe R
Nov 6
538
Safe R
Jul 30
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jul 21
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 28

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified11 / 11deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks