Races · Governor · 2022 · Hawaii

Governor · open seat

Josh Green Sylvia Luke vs Duke Aiona Seaula Tupa'i Jr.

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Likely DD +10.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
96% Luke (D)
4% Jr. (R)
Win probability
Josh Green Sylvia Luke96% (D)
Duke Aiona Seaula Tupa'i Jr.4% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +10.7
80% CIR+1.3 → D+22.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +10.7 · 80% CI R+1.3 → D+22.7
Actual result D+26.3 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 96% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+14) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+10.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.3 (10th pctile) to D+22.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 96% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +10.7

80% CI: R +1.3 → D +22.7 · win prob 96%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+26.3
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DJosh Green Sylvia Luke0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RDuke Aiona Seaula Tupa'i Jr.0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Mar 3

Elections Daily

Safe D

Nov 6

538

Safe D

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe D

Mar 3

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jan 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Lean Dmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks