Races · Governor · 2022 · GA

Governor · open seat

Stacey Abrams vs Brian Kemp

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Tilt R — · 78 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1280d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 78 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 78 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:78 of 78 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/7/2022	Landmark Communications	1.25	L(D+2.4)	1214	—	LV	1280d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1280d old Poll was fielded 1280 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Brian Kemp 52.0 · Stacey Abrams 46.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1281d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 50.0 · Stacey Abrams 45.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	Research Co.	1.01	—(D+1.5)	450	—	LV	1281d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 51.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1103	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1281d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brian Kemp 53.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	1474	—	LV	1281d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Brian Kemp 54.0 · Stacey Abrams 45.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	Targoz Market Research	0.77	—(R+1.0)	579	—	LV	1281d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.	Brian Kemp 56.0 · Stacey Abrams 42.0	poll arch
11/5/2022	East Carolina University	1.63	—(D+1.8)	1077	—	LV	1282d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1282d old Poll was fielded 1282 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 53.0 · Stacey Abrams 46.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Amber Integrated	0.43	L(D+7.8)	600	—	LV	weight 0.431285d old+3 weight 0.43 Aggregation weight is 0.43 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+8.8pt vs editors Across 13 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.8pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brian Kemp 52.0 · Stacey Abrams 43.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Remington Research Group	0.61	neutral(D+0.5)	1150	—	LV	1285d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.5pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 25 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 55.0 · Stacey Abrams 41.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Echleon Insights	1.68	—(R+0.9)	550	—	LV	3 scored polls1285d old+2 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brian Kemp 50.0 · Stacey Abrams 43.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	1168	—	RV	bias D+2.4pt1285d old+3 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 51.0 · Stacey Abrams 45.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	1171	—	LV	1285d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 52.0 · Stacey Abrams 45.0	poll arch
11/1/2022	Patinkin Research Strategies	0.91	L(D+4.4)	700	—	RV	3 scored polls1286d old+2 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1286d old Poll was fielded 1286 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Brian Kemp 49.0 · Stacey Abrams 47.0	poll arch
10/31/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1000	—	LV	1287d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1287d old Poll was fielded 1287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Brian Kemp 52.0 · Stacey Abrams 46.0	poll arch
10/31/2022	Seven Letter Insight	1.00	—	762	—	LV	no scored polls1287d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1287d old Poll was fielded 1287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brian Kemp 49.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
10/30/2022	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	1002	—	RV	bias D+2.6pt1288d old+2 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 1288d old Poll was fielded 1288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Brian Kemp 49.0 · Stacey Abrams 43.0	poll arch
10/27/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1291d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1291d old Poll was fielded 1291 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 52.0 · Stacey Abrams 43.0	poll arch
10/27/2022	Siena College/NYT	2.52	—(D+1.3)	604	—	LV	4 scored polls1291d old+3 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1291d old Poll was fielded 1291 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. weight 2.52 Aggregation weight is 2.52 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Brian Kemp 50.0 · Stacey Abrams 45.0	poll arch
10/27/2022	University of Georgia	3.10	—(R+0.0)	1022	—	LV	3 scored polls1291d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1291d old Poll was fielded 1291 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. weight 3.10 Aggregation weight is 3.10 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Brian Kemp 51.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
10/24/2022	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	1053	—	LV	bias R+2.1pt1294d old+3 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 1294d old Poll was fielded 1294 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 51.0 · Stacey Abrams 41.0	poll arch
10/23/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1076	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1295d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1295d old Poll was fielded 1295 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brian Kemp 52.0 · Stacey Abrams 45.0	poll arch
10/18/2022	East Carolina University	1.63	—(D+1.8)	905	—	LV	1300d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1300d old Poll was fielded 1300 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 51.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
10/17/2022	Landmark Communications	1.25	L(D+2.4)	500	—	LV	1301d old✓ verified 5d ago+1 1301d old Poll was fielded 1301 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brian Kemp 51.0 · Stacey Abrams 45.0	poll arch
10/17/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	984	—	LV	1301d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1301d old Poll was fielded 1301 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Brian Kemp 53.0 · Stacey Abrams 43.0	poll arch
10/16/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1302d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1302d old Poll was fielded 1302 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 50.0 · Stacey Abrams 43.0	poll arch
10/14/2022	Wick Insights	0.74	R(R+4.0)	1018	—	LV	1304d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1304d old Poll was fielded 1304 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 17 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 52.0 · Stacey Abrams 43.0	poll arch
10/11/2022	Civiqs	0.99	L(D+2.5)	717	—	LV	bias D+2.5pt1307d old+2 bias D+2.5pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.5pt. 1307d old Poll was fielded 1307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brian Kemp 51.0 · Stacey Abrams 46.0	poll arch
10/11/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1084	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1307d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1307d old Poll was fielded 1307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brian Kemp 53.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
10/10/2022	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1157	—	LV	1308d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1308d old Poll was fielded 1308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 50.0 · Stacey Abrams 49.0	poll arch
10/7/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1000	—	LV	1311d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1311d old Poll was fielded 1311 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Brian Kemp 51.0 · Stacey Abrams 46.0	poll arch
10/4/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1314d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1314d old Poll was fielded 1314 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 50.0 · Stacey Abrams 45.0	poll arch
10/4/2022	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	1076	—	LV	1314d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1314d old Poll was fielded 1314 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 47.0 · Stacey Abrams 45.0	poll arch
10/4/2022	University of Georgia	3.10	—(R+0.0)	1030	—	LV	3 scored polls1314d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1314d old Poll was fielded 1314 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. weight 3.10 Aggregation weight is 3.10 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Brian Kemp 51.0 · Stacey Abrams 41.0	poll arch
9/26/2022	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	1011	—	RV	bias D+2.6pt1322d old+2 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 1322d old Poll was fielded 1322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Brian Kemp 50.0 · Stacey Abrams 43.0	poll arch
9/20/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	1006	—	RV	1328d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1328d old Poll was fielded 1328 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Brian Kemp 51.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
9/19/2022	YouGov/CBS News	1.00	—	1178	—	RV	no scored polls1329d old+4 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1329d old Poll was fielded 1329 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. TV-network-sponsored: CBS News Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 52.0 · Stacey Abrams 46.0	poll arch
9/18/2022	Patinkin Research Strategies	0.91	L(D+4.4)	600	—	RV	3 scored polls1330d old+2 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1330d old Poll was fielded 1330 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Brian Kemp 50.0 · Stacey Abrams 47.0	poll arch
9/16/2022	University of Georgia	3.10	—(R+0.0)	861	—	LV	3 scored polls1332d old+4 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1332d old Poll was fielded 1332 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: Axios Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. weight 3.10 Aggregation weight is 3.10 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Brian Kemp 50.0 · Stacey Abrams 42.0	poll arch
9/15/2022	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	1202	—	RV	bias D+2.4pt1333d old+3 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 1333d old Poll was fielded 1333 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 50.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
9/12/2022	Survey Monkey	1.00	L	949	—	RV	no scored polls1336d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1336d old Poll was fielded 1336 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Brian Kemp 45.0 · Stacey Abrams 46.0	poll arch
9/12/2022	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1278	—	LV	1336d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1336d old Poll was fielded 1336 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 50.0 · Stacey Abrams 48.0	poll arch
9/7/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1341d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1341d old Poll was fielded 1341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 50.0 · Stacey Abrams 42.0	poll arch
9/7/2022	Echelon Insights	1.00	—(R+1.0)	751	—	LV	1341d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2 1341d old Poll was fielded 1341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brian Kemp 47.0 · Stacey Abrams 48.0	poll arch
8/29/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	600	—	LV	1350d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1350d old Poll was fielded 1350 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Brian Kemp 48.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
8/29/2022	TargetSmart	1.00	L	2327	—	LV	no scored polls1350d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1350d old Poll was fielded 1350 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. n=2,327 Sample size of 2,327 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Brian Kemp 48.0 · Stacey Abrams 46.0	poll arch
8/27/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1079	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1352d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1352d old Poll was fielded 1352 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brian Kemp 51.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
8/7/2022	Phillips Academy	0.79	—(R+1.2)	971	—	RV	4 scored polls1372d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1372d old Poll was fielded 1372 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Brian Kemp 51.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
8/1/2022	Research Affiliates	1.00	L	420	—	LV	no scored polls1378d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1378d old Poll was fielded 1378 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brian Kemp 47.0 · Stacey Abrams 47.0	poll arch
7/27/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	750	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1383d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1383d old Poll was fielded 1383 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 49.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
7/26/2022	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	901	—	RV	bias D+2.6pt1384d old+2 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 1384d old Poll was fielded 1384 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Brian Kemp 47.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
7/24/2022	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	604	—	LV	1386d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1386d old Poll was fielded 1386 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 45.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
7/22/2022	University of Georgia	3.10	—(R+0.0)	902	—	LV	3 scored polls1388d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1388d old Poll was fielded 1388 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. weight 3.10 Aggregation weight is 3.10 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Brian Kemp 48.0 · Stacey Abrams 43.0	poll arch
7/20/2022	Beacon Research	1.00	L	1003	—	RV	no scored polls1390d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1390d old Poll was fielded 1390 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 42 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Brian Kemp 45.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
7/11/2022	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research	1.00	L	1197	—	LV	no scored polls1399d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1399d old Poll was fielded 1399 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 52.0 · Stacey Abrams 45.0	poll arch
7/7/2022	Cygnal	1.04	R(D+1.8)	1200	—	LV	1403d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1403d old Poll was fielded 1403 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 50.0 · Stacey Abrams 45.0	poll arch
7/6/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	1131	—	LV	1404d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+4 1404d old Poll was fielded 1404 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: The Daily Beast Commissioned by The Daily Beast, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Brian Kemp 53.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
6/27/2022	Change Research	0.61	L(D+3.7)	704	—	LV	historical bias D+3.7pt1413d old+3 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 1413d old Poll was fielded 1413 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brian Kemp 49.0 · Stacey Abrams 47.0	poll arch
6/27/2022	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1497	—	RV	1413d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1413d old Poll was fielded 1413 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 48.0 · Stacey Abrams 48.0	poll arch
6/16/2022	Moore Information Group	0.40	R(R+10.0)	800	—	LV	weight 0.404 scored polls+4 weight 0.40 Aggregation weight is 0.40 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1424d old Poll was fielded 1424 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. R+6.5pt vs editors Across 8 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.5pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brian Kemp 51.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
6/9/2022	East Carolina University	1.63	—(D+1.8)	868	—	RV	1431d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1431d old Poll was fielded 1431 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 51.0 · Stacey Abrams 45.0	poll arch
4/27/2022	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	1278	—	LV	1474d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1474d old Poll was fielded 1474 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 50.0 · Stacey Abrams 45.0	poll arch
4/27/2022	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	1278	—	LV	1474d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1474d old Poll was fielded 1474 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	David Perdue 49.0 · Stacey Abrams 46.0	poll arch
4/9/2022	Cygnal	1.04	R(D+1.8)	800	—	LV	1492d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1492d old Poll was fielded 1492 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 50.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
4/9/2022	Cygnal	1.04	R(D+1.8)	800	—	LV	1492d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1492d old Poll was fielded 1492 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	David Perdue 47.0 · Stacey Abrams 48.0	poll arch
4/3/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1013	—	RV	1498d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1498d old Poll was fielded 1498 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Brian Kemp 51.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
4/3/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1013	—	RV	1498d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1498d old Poll was fielded 1498 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	David Perdue 49.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
2/6/2022	Wick	1.00	—	1290	—	LV	no scored polls1554d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1554d old Poll was fielded 1554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brian Kemp 49.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0	poll arch
2/6/2022	Wick	1.00	—	1290	—	LV	no scored polls1554d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1554d old Poll was fielded 1554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	David Perdue 47.0 · Stacey Abrams 45.0	poll arch
1/24/2022	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1702	—	RV	1567d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1567d old Poll was fielded 1567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. n=1,702 Sample size of 1,702 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 49.0 · Stacey Abrams 47.0	poll arch
1/24/2022	University of Georgia	3.10	—(R+0.0)	872	—	RV	3 scored polls1567d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1567d old Poll was fielded 1567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. weight 3.10 Aggregation weight is 3.10 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Brian Kemp 48.0 · Stacey Abrams 41.0	poll arch
1/24/2022	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1702	—	RV	1567d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1567d old Poll was fielded 1567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. n=1,702 Sample size of 1,702 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	David Perdue 48.0 · Stacey Abrams 48.0	poll arch
1/24/2022	University of Georgia	3.10	—(R+0.0)	872	—	RV	3 scored polls1567d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1567d old Poll was fielded 1567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. weight 3.10 Aggregation weight is 3.10 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	David Perdue 47.0 · Stacey Abrams 43.0	poll arch
11/9/2021	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1.00	—(D+5.3)	753	—	RV	1643d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1643d old Poll was fielded 1643 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Brian Kemp 44.0 · Stacey Abrams 41.0	poll arch
11/9/2021	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1.00	—(D+5.3)	753	—	RV	1643d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1643d old Poll was fielded 1643 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Vernon Jones 37.0 · Stacey Abrams 42.0	poll arch
12/30/2020	UNLV Business School	1.00	—	550	—	LV	no scored polls1957d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1957d old Poll was fielded 1957 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brian Kemp 44.0 · Stacey Abrams 40.0	poll arch
12/30/2020	UNLV Business School	1.00	—	550	—	LV	no scored polls1957d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1957d old Poll was fielded 1957 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Doug Collins 44.0 · Stacey Abrams 42.0	poll arch
12/30/2020	UNLV Business School	1.00	—	550	—	LV	no scored polls1957d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1957d old Poll was fielded 1957 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Marjorie Taylor Greene 41.0 · Stacey Abrams 42.0	poll arch
12/30/2020	UNLV Business School	1.00	—	550	—	LV	no scored polls1957d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1957d old Poll was fielded 1957 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Herschel Walker 43.0 · Stacey Abrams 41.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 16 total

Stacey Abrams (D)

16 endorsements · source

Elected officials (3)

Bee Nguyen — state representative from the 89th district (2017–2023) and candidate for Georgia Secretary of State in 2022 [ 79 ]
Jon Ossoff — U.S. senator from Georgia (2021–present) [ 77 ]
Raphael Warnock — U.S. senator from Georgia (2021–present) [ 78 ]

Organizations / unions (2)

AFL–CIO — AFL–CIO [ 80 ]
SEIU — Workers United [ 80 ] [ 81 ]

Other (11)

AFSCME — [ 80 ] [ 81 ]
CWA — Local 3204 [ 80 ] [ 81 ]
Democracy for America — [ 82 ]
EMILY's List — [ 83 ]
IBEW — Local 1579 and 613 [ 80 ] [ 81 ]
IUPAT — [ 80 ] [ 81 ]
MarchOn — [ 84 ]
MoveOn — [ 85 ]
OPEIU — [ 80 ] [ 81 ]
People for the American Way — [ 86 ]
UFCW — Local 1996 [ 80 ] [ 81 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Lean R	Jul 22	—	-3.5	—
Elections Daily	Likely R	Nov 7	—	-9.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Likely R	Oct 27	—	-9.0	—
Inside Elections	Lean R	Nov 3	—	-3.5	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely R	Nov 7	—	-9.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 43 months ago (11/7/2022) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (3 changes)

5/3/2026 Tilt R via pvi held 1293d
10/18/2022 Likely R R+6.2 via polls held 99d
7/11/2022 Lean R R+4.4 via polls