Races · Governor · 2022 · Georgia Governor · open seat
Stacey Abrams vs Brian Kemp Likely R R +11.1 forecast · 70 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probability poliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
3% Abrams (D)
97% Kemp (R)
Win probability
Stacey Abrams 3% (D)
Brian Kemp 97% (R)
Model poliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15 R+5 TIED D+5 D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimate R +11.1
80% CI R+23.1 → D+0.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +11.1 · 80% CI R+23.1 → D+0.9
Actual result R+7.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Momentum
Now —
Window 49 points
How fast the polling margin is shifting, in points per week, and toward which party. The sparkline traces the margin over time.
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Tipping-point P
Now 0.0%
Probability this seat is the pivotal one — the race that decides which party controls the chamber.
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
Market · D-side
Now —
Volume-weighted Democratic win price across prediction-market platforms (in cents = implied %). The sparkline traces it over time.
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
News articles · 30d
Now —
Number of articles about this race indexed in the last 30 days, with the weekly trend.
Where this race stands
Tilt R · model 97% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R .
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+11.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+23.1 (10th pctile) to D+0.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-r
R Brian Kemp
Brian Porter Kemp (born November 2, 1963) is an American politician serving as the 83rd governor of Georgia since 2019. A member of the Repu…
97%win D Stacey Abrams
Stacey Abrams ( Democratic Party ) was a member of the Georgia House of Representatives , representing District 89 . She assumed office on J…
3%win Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +11.1
80% CI: R +23.1 → D +0.9 · win prob 3%
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used 70 Days to election passed Actual result R+7.5 Residual σ 6.00pt Generated 7/1/2026
All polls · 70 results Date Pollster · trust signals n · pop Lean Bias · track vs raters D · R Nov 6, 22 Landmark Communications 1,214 · LV D-LEAN D +2.4 5 tracked +0.3 aligned 46 · 52 Nov 5, 22 InsiderAdvantage +1 550 · LV R-LEAN R +2.8 38 tracked -0.5 aligned 45 · 50 Nov 5, 22 Research Co. +1 450 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.4 50 tracked -0.7 aligned 44 · 51 Nov 5, 22 The Trafalgar Group 1,103 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 44 · 53 Nov 5, 22 Data for Progress +1 1,474 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 45 · 54 Nov 5, 22 Targoz Market Research 579 · LV NEUTRAL R +1.7 12 tracked +4.3 noisy 42 · 56 Nov 4, 22 East Carolina University 1,077 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.8 8 tracked -0.5 aligned 46 · 53 Nov 1, 22 Amber Integrated +1 600 · LV D-LEAN D +7.8 7 tracked +8.8 d lean 43 · 52 Nov 1, 22 Remington Research Group +1 1,150 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.2 11 tracked +1.6 aligned 41 · 55 Nov 1, 22 Echleon Insights 550 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.9 3 tracked — 43 · 50 Nov 1, 22 Marist College +1 1,168 · RV D-LEAN D +2.0 25 tracked +1.7 aligned 45 · 51 Nov 1, 22 SurveyUSA +1 1,171 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.1 94 tracked -0.5 aligned 45 · 52 Oct 31, 22 Patinkin Research Strategies 700 · RV D-LEAN D +4.4 3 tracked — 47 · 49 Oct 30, 22 Emerson College +1 1,000 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 46 · 52 Oct 30, 22 Seven Letter Insight 762 · LV NEUTRAL — — 44 · 49 Oct 29, 22 Fox News 1,002 · RV D-LEAN D +2.1 21 tracked +2.7 d lean 43 · 49 Oct 27, 22 Seven Letter Insight 762 · unknown NEUTRAL — — 44 · 49 Oct 26, 22 InsiderAdvantage +1 550 · LV R-LEAN R +2.8 38 tracked -0.5 aligned 43 · 52 Oct 26, 22 Siena College/NYT +1 604 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.3 4 tracked — 45 · 50 Oct 26, 22 University of Georgia +1 1,022 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.0 3 tracked +0.1 aligned 44 · 51 Oct 23, 22 Rasmussen Reports 1,053 · LV NEUTRAL R +1.9 124 tracked -0.9 aligned 41 · 51 Oct 22, 22 The Trafalgar Group 1,076 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 45 · 52 Oct 17, 22 East Carolina University 905 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.8 8 tracked -0.5 aligned 44 · 51 Oct 16, 22 Landmark Communications 500 · LV D-LEAN D +2.4 5 tracked +0.3 aligned 45 · 51 Oct 16, 22 Data for Progress +1 984 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 43 · 53 Oct 15, 22 InsiderAdvantage +1 550 · LV R-LEAN R +2.8 38 tracked -0.5 aligned 43 · 50 Oct 13, 22 Wick Insights 1,018 · LV R-LEAN R +4.5 9 tracked -0.6 aligned 43 · 52 Oct 10, 22 Civiqs 717 · LV D-LEAN D +2.5 22 tracked +4.0 d lean 46 · 51 Oct 10, 22 The Trafalgar Group 1,084 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 44 · 53 Oct 9, 22 Quinnipiac University +1 1,157 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.4 54 tracked +1.1 aligned 49 · 50 Oct 6, 22 Emerson College +1 1,000 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 46 · 51 Oct 3, 22 InsiderAdvantage +1 550 · LV R-LEAN R +2.8 38 tracked -0.5 aligned 45 · 50 Oct 3, 22 SurveyUSA +1 1,076 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.1 94 tracked -0.5 aligned 45 · 47 Oct 3, 22 University of Georgia +1 1,030 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.0 3 tracked +0.1 aligned 41 · 51 Sep 25, 22 Fox News 1,011 · RV D-LEAN D +2.1 21 tracked +2.7 d lean 43 · 50 Sep 19, 22 Data for Progress +1 1,006 · RV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 44 · 51 Sep 18, 22 YouGov/CBS News +2 1,178 · RV NEUTRAL — +1.6 aligned 46 · 52 Sep 17, 22 Patinkin Research Strategies 600 · RV D-LEAN D +4.4 3 tracked — 47 · 50 Sep 15, 22 University of Georgia +2 861 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.0 3 tracked +0.1 aligned 42 · 50 Sep 15, 22 Patinkin Research Strategies 600 · unknown D-LEAN D +4.4 3 tracked — 47 · 50 Sep 14, 22 Marist College +1 1,202 · RV D-LEAN D +2.0 25 tracked +1.7 aligned 44 · 50 Sep 11, 22 Survey Monkey 949 · RV D-LEAN — — 46 · 45 Sep 11, 22 Quinnipiac University +1 1,278 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.4 54 tracked +1.1 aligned 48 · 50 Sep 6, 22 InsiderAdvantage +1 550 · LV R-LEAN R +2.8 38 tracked -0.5 aligned 42 · 50 Sep 6, 22 Echelon Insights +1 751 · LV NEUTRAL R +1.3 6 tracked +3.3 noisy 48 · 47 Aug 28, 22 Emerson College +1 600 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 44 · 48 Aug 28, 22 TargetSmart +1 2,327 · LV NEUTRAL — — 46 · 48 Aug 26, 22 The Trafalgar Group 1,079 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 44 · 51 Aug 6, 22 Phillips Academy 971 · RV NEUTRAL R +1.2 4 tracked +1.7 aligned 44 · 51 Jul 31, 22 Research Affiliates 420 · LV D-LEAN — — 47 · 47 Jul 26, 22 InsiderAdvantage +1 750 · LV R-LEAN R +2.8 38 tracked -0.5 aligned 44 · 49 Jul 25, 22 Fox News 901 · RV D-LEAN D +2.1 21 tracked +2.7 d lean 44 · 47 Jul 23, 22 SurveyUSA +1 604 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.1 94 tracked -0.5 aligned 44 · 45 Jul 21, 22 University of Georgia +1 902 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.0 3 tracked +0.1 aligned 43 · 48 Jul 19, 22 Beacon Research +1 1,003 · RV D-LEAN — +8.2 d lean 44 · 45 Jul 10, 22 Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research +1 1,197 · LV D-LEAN — +0.8 aligned 45 · 52 Jul 6, 22 Cygnal 1,200 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 45 · 50 Jul 5, 22 Data for Progress +2 1,131 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 44 · 53 Jun 26, 22 Change Research +1 704 · LV D-LEAN D +3.7 18 tracked +5.7 noisy 47 · 49 Jun 26, 22 Quinnipiac University +1 1,497 · RV NEUTRAL D +0.4 54 tracked +1.1 aligned 48 · 48 Jun 15, 22 Moore Information Group +2 800 · LV R-LEAN R +10.0 4 tracked -6.5 r lean 44 · 51 Jun 8, 22 East Carolina University 868 · RV NEUTRAL D +1.8 8 tracked -0.5 aligned 45 · 51 Apr 26, 22 SurveyUSA +1 1,278 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.1 94 tracked -0.5 aligned 45 · 50 Apr 8, 22 Cygnal 800 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 44 · 50 Apr 2, 22 Emerson College +1 1,013 · RV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 44 · 51 Feb 5, 22 Wick 1,290 · LV NEUTRAL — — 44 · 49 Jan 23, 22 Quinnipiac University +2 1,702 · RV NEUTRAL D +0.4 54 tracked +1.1 aligned 47 · 49 Jan 23, 22 University of Georgia +1 872 · RV NEUTRAL R +0.0 3 tracked +0.1 aligned 41 · 48 Nov 8, 21 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 753 · RV D-LEAN D +5.3 5 tracked -0.1 aligned 41 · 44 Dec 29, 20 UNLV Business School 550 · LV NEUTRAL — — 40 · 44
Endorsements · 16 total Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet 16 Abrams · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Stacey Abrams 16 · 100%
Brian Kemp 0 · 0%
Total 16
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
D Stacey Abrams 16 endorsers
Most notable · Jon Ossoff · U.S. senator from Georgia (2021–present)
Other 11
Other · 11
AFSCME CWA · Local 3204 Democracy for America EMILY's List IBEW · Local 1579 and 613 IUPAT MarchOn MoveOn OPEIU People for the American Way UFCW · Local 1996 Elected officials 3
Federal 2 State 1 Local 0
Elected officials · 3
Jon Ossoff · U.S. senator from Georgia (2021–present) Raphael Warnock · U.S. senator from Georgia (2021–present) Bee Nguyen · state representative from the 89th district (2017–2023) and candidate for Georgia Secretary of State in 2022 Organizations 2
Organizations · 2
AFL–CIO · AFL–CIO SEIU · Workers United R Brian Kemp 0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al. Lean R 2 Lean R · 2 raters
The Cook Political Report · Jul 21 Inside Elections · Nov 2 Likely R 3 Likely R · 3 raters
Elections Daily · Nov 6 FiveThirtyEight · Oct 26 Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 6 The Cook Political Report
Lean R Jul 21
Elections Daily
Likely R Nov 6
FiveThirtyEight
Likely R Oct 26
Inside Elections
Lean R Nov 2
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R Nov 6
Demographic crosstabs age · education · race · gender No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026 Likely R model May 11, 2026 · change
Moved to Likely R
Model margin R +8.0
Verification trail
Polls verified 68 / 70deterministic
Polls flagged —none
Markets ingested 0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings —no filings yet
Endorsements 16 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage < 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks