Public domain
RepublicanRunning for WA-4 U.S. House · 2026
Amanda McKinney
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Washington will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the ten U.S. representatives from the State of Washington, one from all ten of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with the other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections will take place on August 4, 2026.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04
Republican Amanda McKinney is running for the U.S. House seat from Washington's 4th District in 2026. In early polling, she trails her opponent John Duresky by roughly five percentage points, about 20% to 25%. She has raised approximately $500,000 for her campaign. Polymarket futures suggest a roughly 90% win probability.
20%
Polling average
our aggregate
86%
Win probability
market-implied
$524k
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho McKinney's money comes from.
C
44/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — small-dollar reliance is the weak spot.
3 watch items · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance26
13% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence40
15% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding79
21% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure29
$1.3M in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$524k
Raised
$73k
Spent
$451k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
13% small (<$200)72% large indiv.15% PAC
79% in-state · 21% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
The contest McKinney is running in.
WA · HOUSE · 2026safe d
McKinney (R) vs John Duresky (D)
20%−5.0 Duresky25%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to McKinney and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: GILBERT STUART · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Republican · WA-4 U.S. House
Amanda McKinney
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Washington will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the ten U.S. representatives from the State of Washington, one from all ten of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with the other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections will take place on August 4, 2026.
Where McKinney standsRace →
McKinney 20%John Duresky 25%
Market · wins
86¢
20%
Poll avg
86%
Win prob
$524k
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04Republican Amanda McKinney is running for the U.S. House seat from Washington's 4th District in 2026. In early polling, she trails her opponent John Duresky by roughly five percentage points, about 20% to 25%. She has raised approximately $500,000 for her campaign. Polymarket futures suggest a roughly 90% win probability.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who McKinney's money comes from.
C
44/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — small-dollar reliance is the weak spot.
3 watch items · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance26
13% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence40
15% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding79
21% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure29
$1.3M in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$524k
Raised
$73k
Spent
$451k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
13% small (<$200)72% large indiv.15% PAC
79% in-state · 21% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: GILBERT STUART · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)