Races · house · 2026 · WA
house · open seat

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vs John Braun

← WA house WA house →
Tilt R R +1.0 · 176 days to election · 2 polls · 0 markets Last poll 94d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 95% R

tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +23.4
80% CI: R +40.9 → R +5.9 · win prob 5%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used2
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +23.4
80% CI R +40.9 → R +5.9
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 2 results

2 of 2 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
2/5/2026Gravis Marketing0.72L(D+2.9)752±3.6LV
bias D+2.9pt94d old+2
  • bias D+2.9pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt.
  • 94d old
    Poll was fielded 94 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Braun 33.0 · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 17.0 · Brent Hennrich 26.0pollarch
2/5/2026Fabrizio, Lee & Associates1.00R400±4.9LV
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+3
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 94d old
    Poll was fielded 94 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Matt Boehnke 7.0 · John Duresky 25.0 · Amanda McKinney 20.0 · Wesley Meier 1.0 · Devin Poore 5.0 · Jerrod Sessler 14.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Feb 6 -1.0 -18.0 +17.0
Inside Elections Safe R Mar 7 -1.0 -18.0 +17.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Aug 14 -1.0 -18.0 +17.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 3 months ago (2/5/2026) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (2 changes)
  • 5/6/2026 Tilt R R+1.0 via polls held 2d
  • 5/4/2026 Likely R via pvi

In the news

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