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Races · house · 2026 · Washington
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat · provisional matchup

John Duresky vs Republican

Likely matchup — the Republican nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.

← Washington houseWashington house →
Safe RR +20.3 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 2 polls · 2 marketsLast poll 152d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
5% Duresky (D)
95% Republican (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +20.3 · 80% CI R+36.4 → R+4.2 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.7%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 14¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Info · primary pending
The Republican nominee hasn't been chosen yet

4 Republican candidates remain. See the republican primary →
Primary August 4, 2026.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 95% R

Polling average rates this race Safe D (D+18.0, sourced from polls).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+20.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+36.4 (10th pctile) to R+4.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 95% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +20.3
80% CI: R +36.4 → R +4.2 · win prob 5%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used2
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +22.0
80% CI R +27.8 → R +18.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +5.0
80% CI D +1.2 → D +8.8
CV MAE 2.97
consensusMarket-implied
R +10.3
no interval
market-implied

Polling average

510152025DURESKY 25.0REPUBLICAN 10.5POORE 5.0FEB '26FEB '26FEB '26
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 14¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 11 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 14% · polls 25%.
Cross-platform price · history
5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?”
14¢86¢+0¢—+0

All polls · 2 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Feb 4Fabrizio, Lee & Associates+2For · Internal R-aligned400 · LVNEUTRAL—+3.9decoupled25 · 7
Feb 4Fabrizio, Lee & Associates+2For · Internal R-aligned400 · LVNEUTRAL—+3.9decoupled25 · 7

Endorsements · 10 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
8Duresky · 100%
DJohn Duresky8 endorsers
Most notable · Benton County · Democratic Party
Organizations8
IDevin Poore2 endorsers
Most notable · Cascade Party
Organizations1
Other1
RRepublican0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-16
Amanda McKinneyH6WA04216 ↗
Receipts
$523.9K
Disburse
$72.8K
Cash on hand
$451.1K
Debts
$120.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jerrod SesslerH2WA04165 ↗
Receipts
$402.5K
Disburse
$351.1K
Cash on hand
$126.4K
Debts
$480.2K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
John DureskyOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$81.6K
Disburse
$24.5K
Cash on hand
$57.1K
Debts
$600
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Matt BoehnkeOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$58.2K
Disburse
$17.8K
Cash on hand
$40.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.3M
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$1.3M · 100%
Top spender
WASHINGTON RISING INC.
For / against split
For McKinney $1.3M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
WASHINGTON RISING INC.R$700.7K55%for Amanda McKinney
AMERICAN MISSIONR$563.8K45%for Amanda McKinney
FREEDOM CAUCUS FUNDR$1000%for Jerrod Sessler

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R4
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-16
Endorsements39 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks