direction · 881 polls · 3 sources · 2009 → 2026
US direction (right track / wrong track)
Today (2026)
35%
right_direction · 2026
First reading
37%
2009 · civiqs
17-year shift
-2pp
falling
Polls
881
polls
Sources
3
civiqs · yougov · the-economistyougov
right_direction % · 2009 → 2026LOESS-smoothed · raw dots underlaid
Story arc
VerifiedUS direction (right track / wrong track) shows a consistent pessimistic consensus across recent polls, with roughly 61–62% saying the country is on the wrong track and 28–34% saying it is headed in the right direction. The most recent reading comes from Civiqs (July 1) [1], showing 31% right direction and 62% wrong track, closely matched by YouGov (June 29) [2] at 32% right direction and 61% wrong track, and The Economist/YouGov (June 29) [3] at 28% right direction and 61% wrong track.
right direction over time
LOESS CONSENSUS
881 polls
BIAS-CORRECTED
House effects removed
INDIVIDUAL POLLS
raw readings
EVENT
curated
By administration
Average right direction during each presidency, from the smoothed series.
Obama · 2009–2017
30%
avg right direction
Trump · 2017–2021
33%
+3pp vs Obama
Biden · 2021–2025
29%
−5pp vs Trump
Trump 2 · 2025–now
33%
+4pp vs Biden
Pollster house effects
Pollsters on this topic · 3
D-LEAN
NEUTRAL
R-LEAN
MOST ALIGNED
Civiqs
-0.3pp
Track record matches consensus to within 0.3 pp across 3 polls.
LARGEST HOUSE EFFECT
YouGov
-2.9pp
Consistently understates support relative to consensus; weight in aggregate is downgraded accordingly.
Who's divided
43pp
Party divides Americans most on this topic.
Republican 69% right direction · Independent 26% · widest spread of any dimension
Dimension
0% right directionPOP AVG 30%100%
Spreadparty
2 subgroups
Republican 69
Independent 26
43pp
race
4 subgroups
White 36
Black or African-American 7
Hispanic/Latino 27
Other 25
29pp
age
4 subgroups
18-34 20
35-49 25
50-64 38
65+ 39
19pp
education
3 subgroups
Non-College Graduate 34
College Graduate 29
Postgraduate 22
12pp
gender
2 subgroups
Male 37
Female 26
11pp
The party gap over time
Democrats and Republicans are 59 points apart today — 33pp wider than in 2009.
democrat6%independent19%republican65%RIGHT DIRECTION % BY SUBGROUP
What's changed
2009
Financial-crisis trough
37%
2011
US credit downgrade
30%
2016
2016 election
30%
2020
COVID national emergency
34%
2022
Inflation peaks
28%
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