favorability · 350 polls · 59 sources · 2015 → 2026
Donald Trump — favorability
Today (2026)
39%
favorable · 2026
First reading
34%
2015 · civiqs
11-year shift
+5pp
rising
Polls
350
polls
Sources
59
civiqs · echelon-insights · morning-consult
favorable % · 2015 → 2026LOESS-smoothed · raw dots underlaid
Story arc
VerifiedDonald Trump's favorability stands at 38% favorable / 58% unfavorable in the most recent Civiqs poll (July 3) [1]. Recent polls show a consistent range of underwater ratings: Echelon Insights recorded 40% favorable / 59% unfavorable (June 22) [2], while Morning Consult was slightly higher at 42% favorable / 54% unfavorable on the same date [3]. Earlier June readings from Echelon Insights, The AI Policy Institute, and Tavern Research each placed his favorable rating at 41% [4][5]. Civiqs numbers have held flat at 38/58 since at least June 19 [1].
favorable over time
LOESS CONSENSUS
350 polls
BIAS-CORRECTED
House effects removed
INDIVIDUAL POLLS
raw readings
EVENT
curated
By administration
Average favorable during each presidency, from the smoothed series.
Trump · 2017–2021
41%
avg favorable
Biden · 2021–2025
46%
+5pp vs Trump
Trump 2 · 2025–now
43%
−3pp vs Biden
Pollster house effects
Pollsters on this topic · 54
D-LEAN
NEUTRAL
R-LEAN
MOST ALIGNED
The Tyson Group
0.0pp
Track record matches consensus to within 0.0 pp across 1 polls.
LARGEST HOUSE EFFECT
TIPP Insights
-3.3pp
Consistently understates support relative to consensus; weight in aggregate is downgraded accordingly.
Who's divided
55pp
Party divides Americans most on this topic.
Republican 86% favorable · Independent 31% · widest spread of any dimension
Dimension
0% favorablePOP AVG 40%100%
Spreadparty
2 subgroups
Republican 86
Independent 31
55pp
race
4 subgroups
White 45
Black or African-American 9
Hispanic/Latino 31
Other 29
36pp
age
4 subgroups
18-34 27
35-49 31
50-64 45
65+ 47
20pp
education
3 subgroups
Non-College Graduate 42
College Graduate 35
Postgraduate 26
16pp
gender
2 subgroups
Male 44
Female 33
11pp
The party gap over time
Independent31%Republican86%FAVORABLE % BY SUBGROUP
What's changed
2015
Campaign launch
34%
2016
Elected president
37%
2021
January 6 Capitol attack
43%
2024
Re-elected
47%