approval · 1030 polls · 140 sources ·
updated Jun 30
Donald Trump job approval (2nd term)
approve
39.1
−0.1 vs 7d
disapprove
58.0
+0.1 vs 7d
Net
−18.9
series low
30-day Δ
−0.5
1-year Δ
−5.5
Series low
39.1
Series high
50.9
Last 90 days · approve
Within series envelope2025 → today
LOW 39.1 · Jul 1AVG 43.6HIGH 50.9 · Jan 8
What's moving
VerifiedDonald Trump's second-term job approval stands at 37% approve / 58% disapprove in the most recent Civiqs poll (July 1) [1]. Recent polls from late June show broad agreement on the disapproval figure: Civiqs [1], The Economist/YouGov [4], and YouGov [2][3] all record disapproval at 58%, while approval readings range from 36–40% across pollsters. Big Data Poll is an outlier at 44% approve / 53% disapprove (June 28) [5]. No polls from approximately 30 days ago are available in this dataset to assess directional change.
Market signal
Prediction-market estimate — not part of our polling average or model.
approve over time
LOESS CONSENSUS
1030 polls
BIAS-CORRECTED
House effects removed
INDIVIDUAL POLLS
raw readings
EVENT
curated
By administration
Average approve during each presidency, from the smoothed series.
Biden · 2021–2025
51%
avg approve
Trump 2 · 2025–now
43%
−7pp vs Biden
Pollster house effects
Pollsters on this topic · 98
D-LEAN
NEUTRAL
R-LEAN
MOST ALIGNED
The Tyson Group
0.0pp
Track record matches consensus to within 0.0 pp across 1 polls.
LARGEST HOUSE EFFECT
TIPP Insights
-3.3pp
Consistently understates support relative to consensus; weight in aggregate is downgraded accordingly.
Who's divided
54pp
Party divides Americans most on this topic.
Republican 84% approve · Independent 30% · widest spread of any dimension
Dimension
0% approvePOP AVG 39%100%
Spreadparty
2 subgroups
Republican 84
Independent 30
54pp
race
4 subgroups
White 44
Black or African-American 8
Hispanic/Latino 28
Other 28
36pp
age
4 subgroups
18-34 24
35-49 29
50-64 47
65+ 46
23pp
education
3 subgroups
Non-College Graduate 41
College Graduate 34
Postgraduate 25
16pp
gender
2 subgroups
Male 43
Female 32
11pp
The party gap over time
Democrats and Republicans are 80 points apart today — 5pp narrower than in 2025.
independent27%republican83%democrat3%APPROVE % BY SUBGROUP
What's changed
2025
Second term begins
50%
2025
Sweeping tariff announcement
46%
2025
Off-year elections
43%
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