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generic ballot · 543 polls · 2 sources · 1995 → 2024

Generic congressional ballot (1996–2020)

Today (2024)
44%
democrat · 2024
First reading
45%
1995 · yougov
29-year shift
-1pp
falling
Polls
543
polls
Sources
2
yougov · fivethirtyeight-average
democrat % · 1995 → 2024LOESS-smoothed · raw dots underlaid50% line · majority threshold2006 · 45%Democratic wave2010 · 44%Tea Party wave2014 · 42%GOP takes Senate2018 · 44%Democratic House wave2020 · 46%2020 election199520002005201020152024
Story arc
Verified

Generic congressional ballot (1996–2020): YouGov's most recent reading, fielded 2024-10-28, shows Democrats and Republicans tied at 46% each [1]. The two prior YouGov waves (2024-10-22 and 2024-10-15) also registered 46–46, indicating a consistent even split across late October [1]. Earlier autumn waves had given Democrats a narrow edge — 47–43 on 2024-09-17 and 46–44 on 2024-09-24 — before the parties converged to even during October (45–45 on 2024-10-07, 46–46 on 2024-10-15) [1]. The poll closest to 30 days before the latest reading is the same 2024-10-28 wave at 46–46, so no net change is measurable over that window [1].

democrat over time

LOESS CONSENSUS
543 polls
BIAS-CORRECTED
House effects removed
INDIVIDUAL POLLS
raw readings
EVENT
curated
CLINTONBUSH 43OBAMATRUMPBIDEN35%40%45%50%55%2006 · Democratic wave2010 · Tea Party wave2014 · GOP takes Senate2018 · Democratic House wave2020 · 2020 electionRAW 44.4CORR 48.819952003201020172024

By administration

Average democrat during each presidency, from the smoothed series.

Clinton · 19932001
45%
avg democrat
Bush 43 · 20012009
45%
+0pp vs Clinton
Obama · 20092017
43%
−2pp vs Bush 43
Trump · 20172021
44%
+2pp vs Obama
Biden · 20212025
44%
−0pp vs Trump

Who's divided

democrat by subgroup · latest crosstabs from YouGov (10/27/2024).

93pp
Party divides Americans most on this topic.
democrat 95% democrat · republican 2% · widest spread of any dimension
Dimension
0% democratPOP AVG 46%100%
Spread
party
3 subgroups
democrat 95
independent 36
republican 2
93pp
race
4 subgroups
white 40
black 74
hispanic 52
other 46
34pp
age
4 subgroups
18-29 55
30-44 51
45-64 43
65+ 40
15pp
education
4 subgroups
hs or less 37
some college 46
college grad 50
postgrad 51
14pp
gender
2 subgroups
male 42
female 49
7pp

The party gap over time

Democrats and Republicans are 93 points apart today — 7pp wider than in 2017.

democrat95%independent36%republican2%DEMOCRAT % BY SUBGROUP
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%201920212023DEM 95IND 36REP 2

What's changed

2006
Democratic wave
45%
2010
Tea Party wave
44%
2014
GOP takes Senate
42%
2018
Democratic House wave
44%
2020
2020 election
46%