generic ballot · 492 polls · 77 sources ·
updated Jun 29
Generic congressional ballot (2026)
democrat
47.3
±0.0 vs 7d
republican
42.1
+0.1 vs 7d
Net
+5.2
series high
30-day Δ
±0.0
1-year Δ
+2.1
Series low
43.9
Series high
47.4
Last 90 days · democrat
Within series envelope2024 → today
LOW 43.9 · Dec 11AVG 45.9HIGH 47.4 · May 10
What's moving
VerifiedThe Generic congressional ballot (2026) shows Democrats leading Republicans across all recent polls. Focaldata's June 30 survey gives Democrats their largest margin at 50% to 43% [1], while Big Data Poll (June 28) shows a similar 50.2% to 41% advantage [4]. YouGov's June 29 poll puts the split at 45% to 42% [2], consistent with its June 22 reading of 45% to 43% [3]. Echelon Insights (June 22) shows a 51% to 45% Democratic edge [7], and Ipsos (June 22) records a 41% to 36% lead [6]. No polls from approximately 30 days ago are available for comparison.
democrat over time
LOESS CONSENSUS
492 polls
BIAS-CORRECTED
House effects removed
INDIVIDUAL POLLS
raw readings
EVENT
curated
By administration
Average democrat during each presidency, from the smoothed series.
Biden · 2021–2025
44%
avg democrat
Trump 2 · 2025–now
46%
+2pp vs Biden
Pollster house effects
Pollsters on this topic · 66
D-LEAN
NEUTRAL
R-LEAN
MOST ALIGNED
John Zogby Strategies
+0.0pp
Track record matches consensus to within 0.0 pp across 4 polls.
LARGEST HOUSE EFFECT
TIPP Insights
-3.3pp
Consistently understates support relative to consensus; weight in aggregate is downgraded accordingly.
Who's divided
91pp
Party divides Americans most on this topic.
democrat 94% democrat · republican 3% · widest spread of any dimension
Dimension
0% democratPOP AVG 48%100%
Spreadparty
3 subgroups
democrat 94
independent 40
republican 3
91pp
race
4 subgroups
white 39
black 78
hispanic 46
other 45
39pp
education
4 subgroups
hs or less 35
some college 42
college grad 52
postgrad 58
23pp
age
4 subgroups
18-29 55
30-44 47
45-64 38
65+ 46
17pp
gender
2 subgroups
male 40
female 49
9pp
The party gap over time
Democrats and Republicans are 91 points apart today — 2pp narrower than in 2025.
democrat94%independent40%republican3%DEMOCRAT % BY SUBGROUP
What's changed
2025
New administration
44%
2025
Off-year elections
45%
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