The week ending June 21, 2026 brought converging polling evidence of depressed presidential approval ratings. An AP-NORC survey found 65% of Americans disapproving of Trump's Iran policy amid a tentative U.S.-Iran deal to end fighting, while state-level data from Pennsylvania showed sharp declines from earlier in the year.[1][6][7] On the electoral calendar, Georgia held June 16 primary runoffs for U.S. Senate and governor—both contests shaped by Governor Brian Kemp's endorsements, with President Trump also endorsing in the Senate race—and race ratings in Texas's 15th Congressional District shifted from tossup to tilt-Democratic.
An AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll (n=3,040, ±2.8pp), conducted June 11–17 as a tentative U.S.-Iran agreement was announced, found Trump's overall job approval at 37%—unchanged from May—while 65% of U.S. adults disapproved of his handling of Iran.[1][2][3] Fifty-three percent said American military action against Iran has gone too far, and approval of Trump's handling of Israel stood at 34%.[2] Across every major issue measured in the survey, Trump's approval remained below 50%.[5] A Civiqs rolling tracker (111,661 responses as of June 17) showed Trump's national net approval at −21 (37% approve, 58% disapprove), with his rating underwater across every swing state surveyed.[7] Support for Trump's Iran policy broke sharply along party lines: only 28% of Republicans disapproved, while large majorities of Democrats and independents disapproved.[2] Early polling indicated many Americans were not convinced the U.S. would emerge from the Iran deal in a stronger position.[4]
State-level data from Pennsylvania reinforced the national picture. The June 2026 Franklin & Marshall College Poll (n=546 registered voters, June 8–14) found approximately 3 in 10 Pennsylvania voters rated Trump's performance as "excellent" or "good," down from approximately 4 in 10 in March.[6] Approval of Trump's handling of inflation fell to 17%, from 31% in late 2025, and Democrats led the Pennsylvania congressional generic ballot by 12 points (47% to 35%).[6] Approximately 47% of Pennsylvania voters reported being worse off financially compared to a year ago.[6]
In the Senate contest, Rep. Mike Collins—endorsed by President Trump on June 14—faced former college football coach Derek Dooley, who carried the backing of term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp; the winner advances to face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in the general election.
In congressional race ratings, TX-15 shifted from tossup to tilt-Democratic on June 14, reflecting movement in prediction markets: the Democratic contract on Polymarket rose from approximately 48 cents in mid-May to roughly 62 cents by June 15, and Kalshi's Democratic price crossed above 50%. The South Texas seat features Republican Monica De La Cruz against Democrat Bobby Pulido. The lone public poll on file—a Public Policy Polling survey conducted for a Democratic-aligned sponsor through September 11, 2025 (n=533 likely voters)—showed De La Cruz at 41% and Pulido at 38%, though the ratings change was driven primarily by prediction-market movement rather than new polling.
References
- [1]Trump approval on Iran low even as tentative deal to end fighting emerged, new AP-NORC poll finds · AP News
- [2]Poll: 65% of Americans disapprove of Trump's Iran policy; 34% back his approach on Israel · Times of Israel
- [3]Trump approval on Iran low even as tentative deal to end fighting emerged, new AP-NORC poll finds · Greenwich Time
- [4]Most Americans Don't See Clear US Gain From Iran Deal: Poll · Newsweek
- [5]Donald Trump's Approval Rating Underwater on Key Issues: Poll · Newsweek
- [6]Donald Trump's Approval Rating Plummets in Key Swing State · Newsweek
- [7]Map Shows Donald Trump's Approval Rating in Every State After 17 Months · Newsweek