Phil Weiser upsets Sen. Michael Bennet in Colorado's Democratic governor primary

Montana House District 1 — Rating Tightens

The aggregated polling margin in Montana's 1st Congressional District narrowed from −10.0 points to −2.5 points (Republican-favored), prompting a rating change from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. The most recent survey, conducted by Impact Research (n=500, ±4.4pp, field end June 25, 2026) for a Democratic-aligned sponsor, showed Republican Aaron Flint and Democrat Sam Forstag tied at 44% each among likely voters.^[1] An earlier Upswing Research poll (n=401, ±4.9pp, field end May 5, 2026), also for a Democratic-aligned sponsor, showed Flint leading Forstag 48%–43%.^[2] A January 2026 Peak Insights survey (n=400, ±5.0pp) conducted for a Republican-aligned sponsor had a different Republican candidate, Ryan Zinke, leading Democrat Ryan Busse 47%–41%.^[3] Prediction markets currently place the Democratic party's win probability at 32% on Polymarket and 37% on Kalshi.

Pennsylvania House District 8 — Also Narrows

PA-8, featuring Republican Rob Bresnahan against Democrat Paige Cognetti, shifted from Lean Democratic to Tilt Democratic, with the consensus margin narrowing from 2.0 to 1.5 points. A Lake Research Partners poll (n=400, field end June 23, 2026) for a Democratic-aligned sponsor showed Cognetti leading Bresnahan 47%–45%.^[4] An earlier Impact Research survey (n=500, ±4.4pp, field end June 11, 2026), also for a Democratic-aligned sponsor, had Cognetti ahead 46%–45%.^[5] Prediction markets place the Democratic party's win probability at 57% on Polymarket and 65% on Kalshi.

Colorado Primary Results

Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser defeated Sen. Michael Bennet in the state's Democratic gubernatorial primary on June 30, 2026, becoming the Democratic nominee for governor.^[6][7] Bennet, who has served in the Senate for 17 years, has two years remaining on his current term; his defeat removes the prospect of a gubernatorial appointment to fill a Senate vacancy.^[6] Weiser will face the Republican nominee in the November 3 general election, seeking to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Jared Polis.^[7]

In Colorado's congressional races, Republican incumbents prevailed in their primary contests.^[9] In Colorado's 8th Congressional District — where the two prior general elections were each decided by less than one percentage point — Democratic state Rep. Manny Rutinel won the Democratic primary and will challenge Republican incumbent Rep. Gabe Evans in November.^[8]

National Polling: Trump Priorities and Country Direction

A survey published June 30, 2026 found that 60% of Americans say President Trump is not focused on the country's most important problems; the same poll found 28% saying the country is headed in the right direction and 61% saying it is on the wrong track — a slight dip from 31% right direction the prior week.^[10] A separate NPR survey (n=1,340, ±3.0pp, conducted June 8–11, 2026) found that a majority of Americans express pride in their country but voice concern about its direction ahead of the nation's 250th anniversary.^[11] A report citing Republican lawmakers described internal party polling showing independents shifting toward Democrats on economic questions, with one GOP senator noting the midterm elections as a concern.^[12]