Sen. Van Hollen backs El-Sayed in Michigan Democratic Senate primary.

Virginia 1st Congressional District (VA-01) moved from tilt-D to tilt-R on June 26, 2026, the only rating change in today's update. The race pits Republican Rob Wittman against Democrat Shannon Taylor ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The sole publicly available poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling (n=541, ±4.2pp, registered voters, field end August 9, 2025), showed Wittman at 41% and Taylor at 40%.^[1] As of June 26, prediction markets placed the Republican Party at 51 cents on Kalshi and approximately 47 cents on Polymarket; the Democratic Party stood at 49 cents on Kalshi and approximately 41 cents on Polymarket.^[2][3]

Michigan Senate — Democratic Primary: Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen announced his endorsement of progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary on June 25, 2026, departing from Democratic party leadership's position in one of the most-watched Senate races of the 2026 cycle.^[4][5][6] The endorsement was shared first with The Associated Press.^[4] El-Sayed, Congresswoman Haley Stevens, and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow are all competing for the Democratic nomination to face Republican Mike Rogers in the November 3, 2026 general election. McMorrow told CNN that voters are "looking for a fighter," characterizing her campaign message in terms of electoral aggressiveness.^[8] She separately accused President Trump of keeping the Ambassador Bridge connecting Michigan and Ontario closed to benefit a political donor.^[7]

The most recent publicly available polling, conducted by Zenith Research (n=602, ±4.0pp, likely voters, field end June 17, 2026), tested each Democrat head-to-head against Rogers: El-Sayed led Rogers 45%–42%, McMorrow led Rogers 44%–42%, and Stevens led Rogers 43%–42%.^[9] The Michigan Senate race carries a current rating of tilt-D. On prediction markets as of June 26, 2026, Kalshi showed El-Sayed at 62 cents to win the seat outright, Stevens at 15 cents, and McMorrow at 1 cent; Polymarket showed Democrats collectively at 71 cents to win the seat.^[10][11]