Mamdani slate ousts two New York House incumbents in Tuesday primaries.

Four House ratings shifted June 24. Connecticut's 5th congressional district moved to safe-Republican, driven by prediction-market consensus; the Kalshi implied Democratic win probability fell to approximately 3 percent by June 24, a sharp reversal from the prior safe-Democratic designation.^[2][3]

Texas's 15th congressional district moved to tossup. A September 2025 Public Policy Polling survey (n=533) showed incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz at 41 percent and Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido at 38 percent.^[4]

Iowa's 1st district moved from likely-Democratic to lean-Democratic. A June 2025 Public Policy Polling survey (n=555) showed Democrat Christina Bohannan at 43 percent and Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks at 39 percent.^[5]

New York's 17th district moved from lean-Democratic to likely-Democratic. Democrat Cait Conley won the primary to face incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler. The Cook Political Report has rated the district a tossup; it has approximately 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.^[1]

New York primaries: Mamdani slate sweeps. Three candidates endorsed by Mayor Mamdani won Democratic House primaries on June 23: Brad Lander defeated incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman, Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat, and Claire Valdez won an open-seat contest.^[6][7] All three races are in heavily Democratic New York City districts.

New York's 12th congressional district drew competing AI-industry super PAC spending. AI-aligned super PACs raised more than $100 million this cycle and spent approximately $44 million on congressional races, with more than $20 million concentrated in the NY-12 Manhattan primary alone.^[8] The group Leading the Future spent roughly $8 million opposing Assemblyman Alex Bores; Public First Action spent approximately $11 million supporting him.^[9] Assemblyman Micah Lasher won the NY-12 Democratic primary. Because the district leans heavily Democratic, whoever wins the primary is expected to serve in Congress next year.^[9]

Utah primaries. Ben McAdams, a former congressman, won the Democratic primary in a redrawn Utah district Democrats are favored to win in November.^[10] Rep. Blake Moore held a preliminary lead in the Republican primary for Utah's 2nd congressional district.^[11]

New polls place Trump approval at 36–38 percent. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted June 17–19 (n=2,519, ±4.3pp) found 38 percent of Americans approve of President Trump's job performance and 62 percent disapprove.^[12][13] A separate NPR/PBS News/Marist poll placed approval at 36 percent with 59 percent in opposition.^[12]

Within the CBS survey, Republican respondents approved at 67 percent and disapproved at 31 percent; among independents, 25 percent approved and 69 percent disapproved.^[12] Trump's handling of the economy received 26 percent approval and 70 percent disapproval in the same poll.^[12]

A national American Research Group poll conducted June 16–20 placed Trump's approval at 30 percent and disapproval at 66 percent, the lowest in that firm's recent trend.^[14] The New York Times polling average stood at 39 percent approval and 59 percent disapproval across surveyed organizations.^[15]