Georgia Republicans pick Collins or Dooley to face Ossoff in Senate runoff.

Today's runoffs were triggered after several May 19 primaries ended without any candidate clearing a majority.^[1] In the Republican U.S. Senate runoff, voters choose between U.S. Rep. Mike Collins and lawyer and former football coach Derek Dooley; the winner advances to face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in November.^[1] Collins received an endorsement from President Trump on Sunday, June 14, while Dooley has been backed by term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp.^[3][4] Ossoff, who faces no contested runoff, has assembled a reported $32 million campaign war chest ahead of the general election.^[3]

Republicans also hold a gubernatorial runoff between healthcare CEO Rick Jackson and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones; the winner will face Democratic nominee and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms.^[1][5] An InsiderAdvantage survey of 800 likely voters conducted June 13–14 found Jackson leading Jones 49 percent to 46 percent, with 5 percent undecided (n=800, ±3.31pp).^[5] In the May 19 primary, Jones finished first with roughly 38 percent and Jackson received about 33 percent; Kemp endorsed Jones on Sunday.^[5] Both parties are also resolving runoffs for secretary of state.^[1]

In Texas, our ratings shifted the 15th Congressional District from tossup to tilt-Democratic on June 14.^[7] The South Texas seat features Republican Monica De La Cruz and Democrat Bobby Pulido. The model's central forecast still favors the Republican by 8.6 points (point margin R+8.6), but the ratings move tracks prediction markets, where the Democratic-party contract on Polymarket rose from about 48 cents in mid-May to roughly 62 cents by June 15, and Kalshi's Democratic price crossed above 50 percent.^[7] The lone public poll on file, a Public Policy Polling survey for a Democratic-aligned sponsor fielded through September 11, 2025 (n=533, likely voters), showed De La Cruz at 41 percent and Pulido at 38 percent.^[7]

The TX-15 shift comes amid analyst attention to turnout differentials. Strategists cited by CNN argue the 2026 environment is shaped less by a surge of new voters than by potential drop-off among parts of Trump's 2024 coalition; one Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics survey this spring found that half of Trump's young 2024 supporters said they definitely intend to vote in 2026, compared with 70 percent of Kamala Harris's backers.^[6]

Framing the broader midterm environment, a new NBC News poll released June 14 — Trump's 80th birthday — put his approval at 39 percent among all U.S. adults, his lowest in an NBC News poll since his first term.^[8][9] Among registered voters his approval was 42 percent, matching his July 2020 low.^[10] The survey polled 2,400 registered voters from May 29 to June 7 (±2pp) and was sponsored by the nonpartisan nonprofit More Perfect.^[8][10] On the congressional ballot, 49 percent of registered voters said they wanted Democrats to control Congress versus 44 percent for Republicans, with 7 percent unsure.^[9]

• YouGov/The Economist: 35 percent approval, 60 percent disapproval (June 5–8, n=1,568 adults, ±3.6pp).^[8]
• Emerson College: 39 percent approval, 55 percent disapproval (June 7–8, n=1,200 likely voters, ±2.8pp).^[8]
• The New York Times average: 39 percent approval, 58 percent disapproval; CNN poll of polls: 37 percent approval, 61 percent disapproval.^[11]
• NBC News: 82 percent of Republicans approve of Trump, down from 88 percent in March.^[9]