43 House districts shift toward Democrats in ratings update.

In the latest ratings update, 43 of the 45 U.S. House districts whose ratings changed moved toward the Democrats; the two exceptions moved toward Republicans. The shifts spanned the map: seven California seats — the 9th, 13th, 27th, 41st, 45th, 47th and 49th — were reclassified as safe Democratic, while prior tossups in Arizona (1st), Nevada (3rd), New York (3rd, 19th), Pennsylvania (7th) and Virginia (2nd) moved to lean or likely Democratic.

The reassessment coincided with a parallel move at the race-rating level by other handicappers. The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shifted three U.S. Senate races toward Democrats — North Carolina from toss-up to leans Democratic, and Alaska and Ohio from leans Republican to toss-up — and said the changes reflected “macro-level” factors, including the president’s approval rating and the House generic ballot, rather than developments in the individual races.^[2] A separate analysis framed the same Senate moves as expanding Democrats’ plausible paths without yet overturning the GOP’s structural advantage.^[1]

Iowa’s 1st District illustrates how sparse district-level polling can sit alongside a contested rating. The seat’s rating and the aggregator’s model forecast (R+9.1) currently disagree, and the only logged poll — a Public Policy Polling survey for a Democratic-aligned sponsor (n=555) — showed Christina Bohannan (D) at 43% to Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) at 39%.^[5]

In Georgia, the most recent logged poll — Echelon Insights (n=407, ±6.5pp) — showed Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) at 49% to Burt Jones (R) at 43%.^[8] The aggregator’s model forecast was D+3.2, and as of June 13 prediction markets priced the Democratic side at about 58% on Polymarket. The tilt-Republican rating is anchored to the state’s partisan lean, while the most recent polling and prediction markets have shown the Democratic candidate ahead.

Iowa’s Senate race carries a tilt-Republican rating with a stated margin of R+1.5. The most recent poll, from Echelon Insights (n=377, ±6.6pp), showed Josh Turek (D) at 46% to Ashley Hinson (R) at 45%, while an earlier GQR survey for a Democratic-aligned sponsor (n=1,200, ±2.8pp) had Hinson up 47%–43%.^[8] The model forecast was R+7.2, and party markets priced Republicans near 60%.

Florida’s special Senate race showed mixed polling across 23 logged surveys. A Change Research poll (n=1,593, ±2.3pp) had Alexander Vindman (D) at 47% to Ashley Moody (R) at 45%,^[6] while a Stetson University poll (n=848, ±4.1pp) had Moody ahead 49%–42%.^[7] The aggregator’s model forecast for the seat was R+11.3.

Two and a half years before the next presidential primary, national surveys describe an unsettled Democratic field. A poll by Noble Predictive Insights placed former Vice President Kamala Harris first among prospective Democratic primary voters at 27%, ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 14%, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 11%, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8%; 17% were unsure.^[9] No candidate has formally announced a campaign.^[9] CNN reported that Ocasio-Cortez is described by those close to her as undecided between a presidential run, a Senate bid, or remaining in the House,^[10] while coverage of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro framed his low-drama profile as an open question for the party.^[11]

• Kamala Harris: 27%^[9]
• Gavin Newsom: 14%^[9]
• Pete Buttigieg: 11%^[9]
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8%^[9]
• JB Pritzker and Andy Beshear: 2% each^[9]
• Not sure: 17%^[9]