Trump loses ground with independents in new AP-NORC polling.

An Associated Press-NORC analysis that aggregated nearly two dozen polls conducted between July 2024 and April 2026 found a steady decline in support for President Trump among independents over the course of his second term.^[1] Among independents without a college degree, positive views of Trump fell from 48% in the months before he returned to office to 31% during his first 100 days back in office, and to about one-quarter by the period spanning last fall's government shutdown and early 2026.^[1] College-educated independents, who started lower at about 3 in 10 positive, also slipped to roughly one-quarter.^[2] The analysis additionally reported declines among Black and Hispanic independents, groups that had moved toward Trump in the 2024 election.^[1]

The analysis tied those views closely to economic sentiment. AP-NORC's May survey found about 3 in 10 independents approved of Trump's handling of the economy, while an April poll found 12% approved of his handling of the cost of living; about 8 in 10 independents described the U.S. economy this spring as poor.^[1] Separately, a Pew Research Center study released June 10 found sharply divided, ideologically split assessments of which U.S. president of the past 40 years did the best job.^[3]

Across the site's full record of 64 Texas Senate polls, the race currently carries a lean-Republican rating with a forecast margin of R+2.4.^[6]

Prediction markets have leaned the other way from the recent topline polls. As of June 9, Kalshi priced Paxton at about 59 cents and Talarico at about 42 cents on the dollar, with Republican prices rising after Paxton's late-May runoff win.^[6]

The Texas movement sits within a broader reshaping of the Senate map by independent handicappers. The University of Virginia's Center for Politics moved the Texas race to Leans Republican following Paxton's win, while noting that big-picture factors such as the president's approval rating and the House generic ballot have, on balance, shifted against Republicans.^[9] A separate update the same week moved Alaska and Ohio to toss-up and North Carolina toward Democrats, though all three remain Republican-held.^[10] A June 2026 Economist simulation cited by Newsweek estimated Republicans had a 52% chance of holding the chamber across 25,001 projected outcomes.^[11]

AdImpact raised its projection for total 2026 cycle ad spending to $11.6 billion, up from a previous $10.8 billion estimate, which the firm says would make it the most expensive U.S. election cycle on record and exceed the $11.2 billion spent in the 2024 presidential cycle.^[12][13] Through June 1, political ad spending had reached $4 billion, a 46% increase over the same point in the 2024 cycle.^[12] The firm attributed much of the increase to Senate races, raising that estimate by 23% to $3.4 billion while revising House spending down 7% to $2.1 billion.^[13]

AdImpact identified the states drawing the most projected ad spending:

• California: $979 million
• Michigan: $852 million
• Texas: $850 million