NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback

Daily report · Thursday, May 21, 2026

Bottoms, Drazan win primaries; Polymarket–Kalshi 2026 gov spreads widen.

Voters in Georgia and Oregon nominated Keisha Lance Bottoms and Christine Drazan for governor on May 19, while May 21 snapshots of 2026 gubernatorial contracts showed sizable price gaps between Polymarket and Kalshi in South Carolina, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oregon, and Iowa.[1][2][7]

Former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms won the Democratic nomination for governor of Georgia, clearing the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff.[1] She defeated former state Sen. Jason Esteves, former DeKalb County executive Michael Thurmond, and former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan.[1][5] On the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and healthcare executive Rick Jackson advanced to a June runoff; former Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger was defeated.[3] A pre-primary Echelon Insights survey of likely Georgia voters (n=407, ±6.5pp), conducted April 3–9, 2026, showed Bottoms at 49% against either Jackson or Jones, who each drew 43%, with 8% undecided in both matchups.[4]

Keisha Lance Bottoms with her sons before the Georgia Democratic primary.
Keisha Lance Bottoms with her sons before the Georgia Democratic primary. · Photo: NBC News
49% – 43%
Bottoms vs Jackson and vs Jones — Echelon Insights, Apr 3–9 (n=407, ±6.5pp)
→ 8% undecided
Pre-primary general-election test in Georgia.

In Oregon, state Sen. Christine Drazan won the Republican gubernatorial primary from a 14-candidate field with 43% of the GOP vote, ahead of state Rep. Ed Diehl at 33% and former NBA player Chris Dudley at 16%.[2][6] Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek faced no notable challenger and won roughly 84% of her party's primary, setting up a rematch of the 2022 race that Kotek won by under 4 percentage points.[2][5] Oregon has not elected a Republican governor since 1982.[2] An early benchmark survey by FM3 Research of 1,065 likely Oregon voters (±3.1pp), conducted January 28 to February 4, was the most recent public general-election poll cited in coverage of the race.[6]

Cross-platform prices for 2026 gubernatorial contracts diverged on May 21. South Carolina's Democratic-win contract showed the widest gap, with Polymarket pricing it at 3.65 cents and Kalshi at 12 cents — an 8.3-percentage-point spread.[7] Other 2026 governor contracts where Polymarket and Kalshi differed by 6 points or more: Georgia Republicans (Polymarket 37.5¢ / Kalshi 45¢, 7.5pp), Massachusetts Republicans (4.5¢ / 12¢, 7.5pp), Oregon Democrats (88.5¢ / 82¢, 6.5pp), and Iowa Republicans (30¢ / 36¢, 6.0pp).[7]

8.3pp
Largest Polymarket–Kalshi gap on a 2026 governor contract (South Carolina, Democratic win)
▲ Polymarket 3.65¢ vs Kalshi 12¢
Widest cross-platform divergence among 2026 gubernatorial markets on May 21.
  • Georgia GOP runoff: Burt Jones vs Rick Jackson, June 2026.[1][3]
  • Oregon general: Drazan vs Kotek rematch, Nov. 3, 2026.[2]
  • Minnesota prediction-market ban: effective Aug. 1; CFTC suit pending.[8][9]

References

  1. [1]Keisha Lance Bottoms wins Democratic nomination in Georgia governor's race · NBC News
  2. [2]Christine Drazan wins Oregon GOP primary for governor, setting up rematch with Kotek · NBC News
  3. [3]Georgia GOP governor's race heading to runoff; Raffensperger defeated · New York Post
  4. [4]Keisha Lance Bottoms' chances of beating GOP to flip Georgia for Democrats · Newsweek
  5. [5]Keisha Lance Bottoms wins Democratic nomination for governor in Georgia · Politico
  6. [6]Christine Drazan's chances vs. Tina Kotek in Oregon governor race · Newsweek
  7. [7]South Carolina governor winner 2026 · Polymarket
  8. [8]Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets · NPR
  9. [9]Wall Street regulator sues to block Minnesota's first-in-nation ban on prediction markets · New York Post
Generated by Claude with automated review · 2026-05-21 · 1 review iteration