NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · Senate · 2024 · Nebraska
</> Embed
Senate · open seat

Preston Love Jr. vs Pete Ricketts

Safe RR +31.0 forecast· 5 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Jr. (D)
99% Ricketts (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +31.0 · 80% CI R+43.0 → R+19.0
Actual result Pete Ricketts ( inc. ) +25.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+13) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+31.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+43.0 (10th pctile) to R+19.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +31.0
80% CI: R +43.0R +19.0 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used5
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultPete Ricketts ( inc. ) +25.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

30354045505560RICKETTS 54.6LOVE 36.8AUG '24SEP '24OCT '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 5 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 27Economist/YouGov1,202 · LVNEUTRAL36 · 54
Oct 25NYT/Siena College+1For · The New York Times1,194 · LVNEUTRAL38 · 56
Oct 11SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA563 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned37 · 53
Sep 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA558 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned35 · 53
Aug 26SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA1,293 · RVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned33 · 50

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RPete Ricketts0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DPreston Love Jr.0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-31
Preston Love Jr.S4NE00223 ↗
Receipts
$283.2K
Disburse
$278.1K
Cash on hand
$9.9K
Debts
$0
Lawyers / law firms$3.5K
Pharma / health products$1.5K
LOZIER ENTERPRISE$6.6K
OPERA OMAHA$6.6K
CUNY$3.3K
PARK FOUNDATION$3.3K
DOMINA LAW$2.5K
Pete RickettsS6NE00129 ↗
Receipts
$5.9M
Disburse
$5.4M
Cash on hand
$487.0K
Debts
$6.0K
Lawyers / law firms$18.5K
MARQUIS MANAGEMENT, INC.$39.6K
SANDHILLS PUBLISHING$26.4K
UNION PACIFIC$24.8K
COX ENTERPRISES$23.0K
KIRKLAND & ELLIS LLP$18.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$115.4K
D side
$70.0K · 61%
R side
$45.4K · 39%
Top spender
CAVALRY PAC
For / against split
For Jr. $70.0K
For Ricketts $45.4K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CAVALRY PACD$70.0K61%for Preston Love Jr.
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUNDR$18.1K16%for Pete Ricketts
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$16.5K14%for Pete Ricketts
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$10.8K9%for Pete Ricketts
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Preston Love Jr.

Editorial ratings · 8 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R8
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 20
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 8
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill
Safe R
Jun 7
Elections Daily
Safe R
May 3
538
Safe R
Oct 22
Inside Elections
Safe R
Nov 8
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified5 / 5deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-31
Endorsementsnothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks