Races · Senate · 2024 · NE
Senate · class II · open seat

Preston Love Jr. vs Pete Ricketts

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Likely R — · 5 polls · 0 markets Last poll 559d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 5 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 5 results

5 of 5 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
10/28/2024Economist/YouGov1.00—1202—LV
no scored polls559d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 559d old
    Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Pete Ricketts 54.0 · Preston Love Jr. 36.0pollarch
10/26/2024NYT/Siena College1.00—1194—LV
no scored polls561d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 561d old
    Poll was fielded 561 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Pete Ricketts 56.0 · Preston Love Jr. 38.0pollarch
10/12/2024SurveyUSA1.00—(D+1.5)563—LV
575d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 575d old
    Poll was fielded 575 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Pete Ricketts 53.0 · Preston Love Jr. 37.0pollarch
9/23/2024SurveyUSA1.00—(D+1.5)558—LV
594d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 594d old
    Poll was fielded 594 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Pete Ricketts 53.0 · Preston Love Jr. 35.0pollarch
8/27/2024SurveyUSA1.00—(D+1.5)1293—RV
621d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 621d old
    Poll was fielded 621 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Pete Ricketts 50.0 · Preston Love Jr. 33.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-31
Total IE spending
$115K
For candidates
$115K
Against candidates
$0
Latest filing: 10/31/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E
Preston Love Jr. (D)
$70K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$10K
Total raised (cycle)
$283K
Total spent
$278K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Pete Ricketts (R)
$45K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$487K
Total raised (cycle)
$5.9M
Total spent
$5.4M
Debts
$6K
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

8 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
CNalysis Safe R Nov 21 — -18.0 —
The Cook Political Report Safe R Nov 9 — -18.0 —
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill Safe R Jun 8 — -18.0 —
Elections Daily Safe R May 4 — -18.0 —
538 Safe R Oct 23 — -18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe R Nov 9 — -18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Nov 9 — -18.0 —
Split Ticket Safe R Oct 23 — -18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 19 months ago (10/28/2024) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (3 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Likely R via pvi held 604d
  • 9/6/2024 Safe R R+17.0 via polls held 60d
  • 7/8/2024 Likely R via pvi