Races · Senate · 2026 · SC
Senate · class II · open seat

Annie Andrews vs Lindsey Graham

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Likely R R +5.5 · 176 days to election · 3 polls · 4 markets Last poll 70d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 3 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 93% R

likely-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +21.0
80% CI: R +38.5 → R +3.5 · win prob 7%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used3
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +12.3
80% CI R +13.8 → R +10.4
CV MAE 7.21
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +7.7
80% CI R +10.7 → R +4.6
CV MAE 2.40
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +21.0
80% CI R +38.5 → R +3.5
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
|Toggle:

All polls · 3 results

3 of 3 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
3/1/2026Impact Research1.00L700±3.7LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+4
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 70d old
    Poll was fielded 70 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Lindsey Graham 47.0 · Annie Andrews 42.0pollarch
11/22/2025Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)704±3.7unknown
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned169d old+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 169d old
    Poll was fielded 169 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Lindsey Graham 42.0 · Annie Andrews 36.0pollarch
11/22/2025Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)704±3.7unknown
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned169d old+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 169d old
    Poll was fielded 169 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Lindsey Graham 41.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 19 total
Annie Andrews (D)
7 endorsements · source
Elected officials (2)
  • JA Moore — state representative from the 15th district (2018–present) [ 48 ]
  • Michael Rivers — state representative from the 121st district (2016–present) [ 48 ]
Organizations / unions (3)
  • 314 Action — Fund [ 44 ]
  • Jaime Harrison — former chair of the Democratic National Committee (2021–2025) [ 43 ]
  • Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs — [ 46 ]
Other (2)
  • EMILYs List — [ 45 ]
  • Vote Mama — [ 47 ]
Lindsey Graham (R)
12 endorsements · source
Elected officials (3)
  • Ben Carson — former secretary of housing and urban development (2017–2021) [ 21 ]
  • Donald Trump — president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present) [ 22 ]
  • Henry McMaster — governor of South Carolina (2017–present) [ 23 ]
Organizations / unions (4)
  • ClearPath Foundation — [ 25 ]
  • National Right to Life Committee — [ 26 ]
  • Paul Dans — former Office of Personnel Management chief of staff (2020) and Project 2025 architect [ 15 ]
  • Tea Party Express — [ 21 ]
Other (5)
  • AIPAC — [ 24 ]
  • Mike Flynn — 24th United States National Security Advisor [ 27 ]
  • Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America — [ 26 ]
  • Tim Scott — South Carolina (2013–present) [ 23 ]
  • Tucker Carlson — conservative political commentator [ 28 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Oct 14 -5.5 -18.0 +12.5
Inside Elections Likely R Apr 23 -5.5 -9.0 +3.5
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Aug 12 -5.5 -18.0 +12.5

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 2 months ago (3/1/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Likely R R+5.5 via polls

In the news

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