Races · Senate · 2026 · MT
Senate · class II · open seat

Reilly Neill vs Steve Daines

← MS Senate NC Senate →
Safe R R +21.7 · 176 days to election · 3 polls · 6 markets Last poll 81d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 3 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 98% R

safe-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +27.9
80% CI: R +45.4 → R +10.3 · win prob 2%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used3
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +25.6
80% CI R +27.9 → R +21.9
CV MAE 7.21
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +21.6
80% CI R +24.3 → R +18.8
CV MAE 2.12
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +27.9
80% CI R +45.4 → R +10.3
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
|Toggle:

All polls · 3 results

3 of 3 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
2/18/2026American Pulse Research & Polling1.00—607±4.0LV
no scored polls81d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 81d old
    Poll was fielded 81 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Steve Daines 52.0 · Reilly Neill 25.0 · Seth Bodnar 16.0pollarch
2/18/2026American Pulse Research & Polling1.00—607±4.0LV
no scored polls81d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 81d old
    Poll was fielded 81 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Steve Daines 54.0 · Seth Bodnar 40.0pollarch
1/26/2026yes. every kid.1.00—500±4.4RV
no scored polls104d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 104d old
    Poll was fielded 104 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Steve Daines 43.0 · Reilly Neill 19.0 · Seth Bodnar 15.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 7 total
Steve Daines (R)
7 endorsements · source
Elected officials (2)
  • Donald Trump — president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present) [ 13 ] (previously endorsed Daines) [ 14 ]
  • Greg Gianforte — governor of Montana (2021–present) [ 15 ]
Organizations / unions (1)
  • Montana Republican Party — [ 8 ]
Other (4)
  • AIPAC — [ 17 ]
  • Steve Daines — Montana (2015–present) [ 12 ]
  • Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America — [ 16 ]
  • Tim Sheehy — Montana (2025–present) [ 15 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Oct 14 -21.7 -18.0 -3.7
Inside Elections Likely R Mar 5 -21.7 -9.0 -12.7
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely R Mar 4 -21.7 -9.0 -12.7

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 3 months ago (2/18/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Safe R R+21.7 via polls

In the news

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