Races · Senate · 2026 · MS

Senate · class II · open seat

Scott Colom vs Cindy Hyde-Smith

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Lean R R +3.0 · 176 days to election · 4 polls · 4 markets Last poll 28d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 97% R

lean-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

R +25.4

80% CI: R +42.9 → R +7.9 · win prob 3%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	4
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +10.9

80% CI R +18.3 → R +8.9

CV MAE 7.21

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +7.7

80% CI R +11.1 → R +4.2

CV MAE 2.68

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

R +25.4

80% CI R +42.9 → R +7.9

CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 4 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:4 of 4 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
4/12/2026	Impact Research	1.00	L	500	±4.4	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+3 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Cindy Hyde-Smith 42.0 · Scott Colom 39.0 · Ty Pinkins 6.0	poll arch
4/12/2026	Impact Research	1.00	L	500	±4.4	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+3 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Cindy Hyde-Smith 33.0	poll arch
6/22/2025	Impact Research	1.00	L	500	±4.4	RV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+4 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 322d old Poll was fielded 322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Cindy Hyde-Smith 51.0 · Scott Colom 38.0	poll arch
6/22/2025	Impact Research	1.00	L	500	±4.4	RV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+4 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 322d old Poll was fielded 322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Cindy Hyde-Smith 38.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 32 total

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

20 endorsements · source

Elected officials (6)

David McRae — state treasurer of Mississippi (2020–present) [ 8 ]
Delbert Hosemann — lieutenant governor of Mississippi (2020–present) [ 8 ]
Donald Trump — president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present) [ 7 ]
Jason White — speaker of the Mississippi House of Representatives (2024–present) from the 48th district (2012–present) [ 8 ]
Lynn Fitch — attorney general of Mississippi (2020–present) [ 8 ]
Tate Reeves — governor of Mississippi (2020–present) [ 8 ]

Other (14)

70 — 80%
80 — 90%
90 — 100%
AIPAC — [ 9 ]
Andy Gipson — agriculture commissioner of Mississippi (2018–present) [ 8 ]
Maggie's List — [ 10 ]
Michael Guest — MS-03 (2019–present) [ 8 ]
Mike Chaney — insurance commissioner of Mississippi (2008–present) [ 8 ]
Mike Ezell — MS-04 (2023–present) [ 8 ]
Roger Wicker — Mississippi (2007–present) [ 8 ]
Shad White — state auditor of Mississippi (2018–present) [ 8 ]
Trent Kelly — MS-01 (2015–present) [ 8 ]
state representatives — ves [ 8 ]
state senators — ors [ 8 ]

Scott Colom (D)

12 endorsements · source

Organizations / unions (2)

AFL-CIO — ippi AFL-CIO [ 18 ]
Congressional Black Caucus PAC — [ 17 ]

Other (10)

40 — 50%
50 — 60%
60 — 70%
70 — 80%
80 — 90%
90 — 100%
Bennie Thompson — MS-02 (1993–present) [ 16 ]
Indivisible — DeSoto MS [ 19 ]
state representatives — ves [ 17 ]
state senators — rs [ 17 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Oct 14	-3.0	-18.0	+15.0
Inside Elections	Safe R	Aug 12	-3.0	-18.0	+15.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Aug 12	-3.0	-18.0	+15.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 4 weeks ago (4/12/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/3/2026 Lean R R+3.0 via polls