Democratic primary · September 1, 2026
Massachusetts Senate Democratic primary
Field of 2 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
60
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (13.6pp).
Forecast CI width45
13.6pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution45 / 100
Measured13.6pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 8 polls + fundamentals1Ed MarkeyEdward John Markey (born July 11, 1946) is an American politician serving as the junior United States senator from the state of Massachusett…
2Seth MoultonSeth Wilbur Moulton (born October 24, 1978) is an American politician and Marine Corps combat veteran who has been the U.S. representative f…
3Alex Rikleen
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 28 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Markey | Moulton | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 370 · LV | 41 | 35 | +6 |
| Jun 22, 26 | University of New Hampshire | 370 · LV | 41 | 35 | +6 |
| May 6, 26 | Emerson College | 451 · LV | 37 | 32 | +5 |
| May 6, 26 | Emerson College | 451 · LV | 37 | 32 | +5 |
| May 3, 26 | Emerson College | 451 · LV | 37 | 32 | +5 |
| Apr 22, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 356 · LV | 46 | 33 | +13 |
| Apr 22, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 356 · LV | 46 | 33 | +13 |
| Apr 19, 26 | University of New Hampshire | 353 · LV | 46 | 33 | +13 |
| Apr 14, 26 | Suffolk University | 500 · LV | 47 | 30 | +17 |
| Apr 12, 26 | Suffolk University | 500 · RV | 47 | 30 | +17 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 90 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetEd Markey · 80Seth Moulton · 10
DEd Markey80 endorsers
Most notable · Katherine Clark · House minority whip (2023–present) from MA-05 (2013–present)
Elected officials44
Federal 10State 24Local 8
Elected officials · 44
- Katherine Clark · House minority whip (2023–present) from MA-05 (2013–present)
- Dan Wolf · former state senator from the Cape and Islands district (2011–2017)
- Edward Kennedy · former state senator from the 1st Middlesex district (2019–2025) (deceased)
- Jason Lewis · state senator from the 5th Middlesex district (2014–present)
- Joan Lovely · state senator from the 2nd Essex district (2013–present)
- Julian Cyr · state senator from the Cape and Islands district (2017–present)
- Liz Miranda · state senator from the 2nd Suffolk district (2023–present)
- Marc Pacheco · former state senator from the 1st Plymouth and Bristol district (1993–2025)
- Michael Barrett · state senator from the 3rd Middlesex district (2013–present)
- Michael Moore · state senator from the 2nd Worcester district (2009–present)
- Michael Rodrigues · state senator from the 1st Bristol and Plymouth district (2011–present)
- Nick Collins · state senator from the 1st Suffolk district (2018–present)
- Pat Jehlen · state senator from the 2nd Middlesex district (2005–present)
- Robyn Kennedy · state senator from the 1st Worcester district (2023–present)
- Sal DiDomenico · state senator from the Middlesex and Suffolk district (2010–present)
- Susan Moran · former state senator from the Plymouth and Barnstable district (2020–2025)
- Andrea Campbell · attorney general of Massachusetts (2023–present)
- Ayanna Pressley · MA-07 (2019–present)
- Bill Keating · MA-09 (2011–present)
- Jim McGovern · MA-02 (2013–present)
- Lori Trahan · MA-03 (2019–present)
- Richard Neal · MA-01 (1989–present)
- Therese Murray · former president of the Massachusetts Senate (2007–2015) from the Plymouth and Barnstable district (1993–2015)
- Bernie Sanders · Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)
- Boston city councilors · ouncilors
- Brandy Fluker-Reid · state representative from the 12th Suffolk district (2021–present)
- David LeBoeuf · state representative from the 17th Worcester district (2019–present)
- Ed Flynn · Boston city councilor from the 2nd district (2018–present)
- Elizabeth Warren · Massachusetts (2013–present)
- Homar Gomez · state representative from the 2nd Hampshire district (2025–present)
- Jared Nicholson · mayor of Lynn (2022–present)
- Jon Mitchell · mayor of New Bedford (2012–present)
- Joseph Petty · mayor of Worcester (2012–present)
- Kevin Hayden · district attorney of Suffolk County (2022–present)
- Lindsay Sabadosa · state representative from the 1st Hampshire district (2019–present)
- Marian Ryan · district attorney for Middlesex County (2013–present)
- Mary Keefe · state representative from the 15th Worcester district (2013–present)
- Michelle Wu · mayor of Boston (2021–present)
- Paul DePalo · governor's councilor from the 7th district (2021–present)
- Paul Heroux · sheriff of Bristol County (2023–present)
- Peter Koutoujian · sheriff of Middlesex County (2011–present) and former state representative from the 10th Middlesex district (1997–2011)
- Russell Holmes · state representative from the 6th Suffolk district (2011–present)
- William Brownsberger · president pro tempore of the Massachusetts Senate (2019–present) from the 2nd Suffolk and Middlesex district (2012–present)
- state representatives · entatives
Organizations35
Organizations · 35
- American Federation of Government Employees
- American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees · Council 93
- American Federation of Teachers · Massachusetts
- Armenian National Committee of America
- Association of Flight Attendants
- Boston Teachers Union
- Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen
- Carpenters · ntic States Regional Council of Carpenters
- Christopher Street Project
- College Democrats · of Massachusetts
- Committee of Interns and Residents
- End Citizens United
- Human Rights Campaign
- International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers · State Council
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Local 103
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters
- Massachusetts AFL-CIO
- Massachusetts Democratic Party
- Massachusetts Nurses Association
- National Association of Government Employees · Local 5000
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee
- Progressive Democrats of America
- SEIU · Locals 1199, 888 and 509
- SEIU 32BJ
- Sunrise Movement
- Teachers Association · rs Association
- Teamsters · Local 122
- UNITE HERE · Local 26
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Locals 328, 791, 1445, and 1459
- Voters of Tomorrow
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Ken Burns · filmmaker
DSeth Moulton10 endorsers
Most notable · John Cronin · state senator from the Worcester and Middlesex district (2021–present)
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- Democrats for Education Reform
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Locals 104, 1499, and 2325
- Iron Workers · Local 7
- Plumbers and Gasfitters · Local 12
- Teamsters · Joint Council 10 and Locals 3, 25, 42, 59, 127, 170, 404, and 653
- Utility Workers Union of America
- VoteVets
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- John Cronin · state senator from the Worcester and Middlesex district (2021–present)
- Max Rose · former NY-11 (2019–2021)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Tim Miller · Director of communications on the Jeb Bush 2016 presidential campaign and writer for The Bulwark
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-17Seth MoultonS6MA00296 ↗
Raised
$4.26M
Cash on hand
$3.33M
Top industries
Securities & investment$45K
Securities & investment · $45K
- Fidelity Investments · $31K
- Bain Capital · $14K
Individuals $45K · PACs $0
Education$30K
Education · $30K
- Harvard Business School · $17K
- Harvard University · $14K
Individuals $30K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$14K
Computers / electronics · $14K
- Francisco Partners · $14K
Individuals $14K · PACs $0
Ed MarkeyS4MA00028 ↗
Raised
$3.80M
Cash on hand
$2.54M
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$30K
Lawyers / law firms · $30K
- Keches Law Group · $15K
- Clifford Law Offices · $14K
Individuals $30K · PACs $0
Internet$12K
Internet · $12K
- Google · $12K
Individuals $12K · PACs $0
In the news
32 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
32 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles32
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.16
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.23 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.16
Week-over-weekshift −0.23 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 19%
Neutral 78%
R 3%
22% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets19%
Neutral78%
R-leaning outlets3%
22% of outlets classified by editorial lean
G
Climate programs regain footing as Massachusetts Dems debate energy affordability
S
E&E News: Climate programs regain footing as Massachusetts Dems debate energy affordability
S
UNH Poll: Markey’s Lead Over Moulton Narrows Ahead of September Democratic Primary
M
Markey and Moulton will have first US Senate primary debate in WMass
Y
Markey and Moulton will have first senate debate in Western Massachusetts
W
Massachusetts Senate primary debate: Markey vs Moulton
N
Massachusetts Sen. Markey Blasts Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” as “Big Ugly Bill” on Anniversary
W
Massachusetts Senate primary debate: Markey vs Moulton
A
Markey-Moulton Mass. primary race remains tight
A
Markey-Moulton Mass. primary race remains tight
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 28deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-17
Endorsements91 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage32 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks