Races · Senate · 2026 · IL
Senate · class II · open seat

Illinois Senate

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Lean D — · 176 days to election · 0 polls · 4 markets Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 91% D

lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +18.6
80% CI: D +1.1 → D +36.2 · win prob 91%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +11.1
80% CI R +25.1 → D +24.1
CV MAE 7.21
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +18.6
80% CI D +1.1 → D +36.2
CV MAE 13.66

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Jan 12 — +18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe D Jan 12 — +18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D Jan 29 — +18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll — last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Lean D via pvi

In the news

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