Races · Senate · 2026 · ID

Senate · class II · open seat

Idaho Senate

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Safe R — · 176 days to election · 1 polls · 4 markets Last poll 54d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 100% R

safe-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

R +41.8

80% CI: R +59.3 → R +24.3 · win prob 0%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	1
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +32.6

80% CI R +36.2 → R +30.7

CV MAE 7.21

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

R +41.8

80% CI R +59.3 → R +24.3

CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 1 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:1 of 1 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
3/17/2026	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	639	±3.9	RV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligneduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jim Risch 48.0 · Todd Achilles 34.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 2 total

Jim Risch (R)

2 endorsements · source

Elected officials (1)

Donald Trump — president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present) [ 8 ]

Other (1)

AIPAC — [ 9 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Jan 12	—	-18.0	—
Inside Elections	Safe R	Jan 12	—	-18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Jan 29	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 8 weeks ago (3/17/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/3/2026 Safe R via pvi