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Races · Senate · 2024 · Wyoming
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Senate · class I · open seat

Scott Morrow vs John Barrasso

← West Virginia Senate
Safe RR +46.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Morrow (D)
99% Barrasso (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +46.2 · 80% CI R+58.2 → R+34.2
Actual result R+51.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+25) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+46.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+58.2 (10th pctile) to R+34.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +46.2
80% CI: R +58.2 → R +34.2 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+51.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RJohn Barrasso0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DScott Morrow0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
I2,0170 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-17
John BarrassoS6WY00068 ↗
Receipts
$7.8M
Disburse
$4.5M
Cash on hand
$7.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$63.2K
Air transport$50.1K
Top contributors
KKR$40.6K
DELTA AIRLINES$28.9K
WCAS$26.0K
CONSTELLATION$25.6K
BLACKSTONE$22.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.0M
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$2.0M · 100%
Top spender
HIGH PLAINS PAC
For / against split
For Barrasso $2.0M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HIGH PLAINS PACR$1.9M93%for John Barrasso
NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUNDR$75.0K4%for John Barrasso
CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC.R$50.4K2%for John Barrasso
HEALTHCARE FREEDOM SUPER PACR$20.0K1%for John Barrasso
HUNTER ACTION FUND (HAF)R$693.710%for John Barrasso

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R9
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 20
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
May 2
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill
Safe R
Jun 7
Elections Daily
Safe R
May 3
538
Safe R
Oct 22
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jul 27
RealClearPolitics
Safe R
Aug 4
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jan 23
Split Ticket
Safe R
Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-17
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks