Races · Senate · 2024 · Washington

Senate · class I · open seat

Maria Cantwell vs Raul Garcia

← Vermont Senate Wisconsin Senate →

Safe DD +19.5 forecast· 12 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Cantwell (D)
1% Garcia (R)
Win probability
Maria Cantwell99% (D)
Raul Garcia1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +19.5
80% CID+7.5 → D+31.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +19.5 · 80% CI D+7.5 → D+31.5
Actual result D+18.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+8) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+19.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+7.5 (10th pctile) to D+31.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +19.5

80% CI: D +7.5 → D +31.5 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	12
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+18.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
202530354045505560CANTWELL 55.7GARCIA 37.0NOV '23MAY '24NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 12 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Nov 2, 24	Research Co.+1For · Research Co.	450 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.450 tracked	-0.7aligned	58 · 38
Oct 16, 24	Public Policy Polling+1For · NPI's Cascadia Advocate	571 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	53 · 38
Oct 13, 24	SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA	703 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.194 tracked	-0.5aligned	55 · 32
Sep 5, 24	Cascade PBS/Elway Research+1	403 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	-5.6decoupled	55 · 33
Jul 24, 24	Public Policy Polling+1For · NPI's Cascadia Advocate	581 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	55 · 32
Jul 12, 24	SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA	564 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.194 tracked	-0.5aligned	58 · 37
May 15, 24	Public Policy Polling+1For · NPI's Cascadia Advocate	615 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	53 · 38
May 15, 24	Cascade PBS/Elway Research+1	403 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	-5.6decoupled	39 · 30
Mar 20, 24	Echelon Insights+1	600 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +1.36 tracked	+3.3noisy	44 · 36
Feb 13, 24	Public Policy Polling+1For · NPI's Cascadia Advocate	789 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	53 · 37
Nov 14, 23	Public Policy Polling+1For · NPI's Cascadia Advocate	700 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	51 · 38
Nov 2, 23	Elway Research+1	403 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +1.83 tracked	—	43 · 23

· 12 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DMaria Cantwell0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RRaul Garcia0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-16

Maria CantwellS8WA00194 ↗

Receipts

$11.1M

Disburse

$10.7M

Cash on hand

$611.2K

Debts

$2.2M

Top industries

Computers / electronics$128.1K

Air transport$81.2K

Education$46.7K

Lawyers / law firms$30.1K

Top contributors

T-MOBILE$99.3K

MICROSOFT CORPORATION$75.4K

AMAZON$52.6K

ROYAL CARIBBEAN GROUP$52.0K

UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON$46.7K

Raul GarciaOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$773.7K

Disburse

$773.7K

Cash on hand

Debts

Top industries

Health professionals$6.6K

Real estate$6.6K

Education$6.5K

Top contributors

GORDON THOMAS$6.6K

MARTIN GENERAL HOSPITAL$6.6K

DICKS DRIVE-INS, LTD, LP$6.6K

PREMIER RETINA SPECIALISTS$6.6K

BARBER PROPERTIES$6.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$13.7K

D side

$13.7K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

TOGETHER FOR PROGRE…

For / against split

For Cantwell $13.7K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
TOGETHER FOR PROGRESS 2024	D	$7.7K	56%	for Maria Cantwell
PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KY	D	$5.7K	42%	for Maria Cantwell
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION	D	$225.72	2%	for Maria Cantwell
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Maria Cantwell

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D9

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 20

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Nov 8

Decision Desk HQ / The Hill

Safe D

Jun 7

Elections Daily

Safe D

May 3

538

Safe D

Oct 22

Inside Elections

Safe D

Nov 8

RealClearPolitics

Safe D

Aug 4

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Nov 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified10 / 12deterministic

Polls flagged2needs review

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-16

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks