Races · Senate · 2024 · Vermont

Senate · class I · open seat

Vermont Senate

← Virginia Senate Washington Senate →

Likely DD +10.9 forecast· 2 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
97% (D)
3% Malloy (R)
Win probability
Democrat97% (D)
Gerald Malloy3% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +10.9
80% CIR+1.1 → D+22.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +10.9 · 80% CI R+1.1 → D+22.9
Actual result Bernie Sanders +31.1 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 97% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+14) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+10.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.1 (10th pctile) to D+22.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 97% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +10.9

80% CI: R +1.1 → D +22.9 · win prob 97%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	2
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Bernie Sanders +31.1
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
25303540455055606570SANDERS 64.0MALLOY 27.0AUG '24SEP '24NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 2 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Nov 1	University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire	1,167 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.912 tracked	+0.3aligned	27
Aug 18	University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire	924 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.912 tracked	+0.3aligned	25

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

IBernard Sanders0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RGerald Malloy0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Bernard SandersOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$8.2M

Disburse

$7.2M

Cash on hand

$10.7M

Debts

Top industries

Internet$11.8K

Computers / electronics$8.9K

Education$3.8K

Pharma / health products$3.5K

Top contributors

TA INSTRUMENTS$13.0K

GOOGLE$11.8K

MERITAGE GROUP LP$6.6K

APPLE$5.3K

CUNY$4.6K

Gerald MalloyOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$663.0K

Disburse

$642.8K

Cash on hand

$21.0K

Debts

$5.0K

Top industries

Govt employees$3.5K

Top contributors

HUBBARD BROADCASTING$13.2K

DANIELS MANUFACTURING CORPORATION$6.6K

THE MACK COMPANY$6.6K

MACK-CALI R.E. CORPORATION$6.6K

COPPERWOOD$6.6K

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 15, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified2 / 2deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks