Races · Senate · 2024 · UT
Senate · class II · open seat

Caroline Gleich vs John Curtis

← TX Senate VA Senate →
Likely R — · 5 polls · 0 markets Last poll 559d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 5 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
|Toggle:

All polls · 5 results

5 of 5 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
10/28/2024Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)695—LV
4 scored polls559d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 559d old
    Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Curtis 54.0 · Caroline Gleich 26.0 · Carlton Bowen 7.0pollarch
10/19/2024HarrisX1.00—(R+0.4)813—RV
568d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 568d old
    Poll was fielded 568 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Deseret News
    Commissioned by Deseret News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias R+0.4pt
    Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.
John Curtis 55.0 · Caroline Gleich 20.0 · Carlton Bowen 2.0pollarch
10/7/2024Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)539—LV
4 scored polls580d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 580d old
    Poll was fielded 580 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Curtis 53.0 · Caroline Gleich 24.0pollarch
9/19/2024Lighthouse Research1.00—526—RV
no scored polls598d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 598d old
    Poll was fielded 598 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Deseret News
    Commissioned by Deseret News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
John Curtis 53.0 · Caroline Gleich 34.0 · Carlton Bowen 8.0pollarch
8/9/2024HarrisX1.00—(R+0.4)800—RV
639d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 639d old
    Poll was fielded 639 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Deseret News
    Commissioned by Deseret News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias R+0.4pt
    Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.
John Curtis 56.0 · Caroline Gleich 22.0 · Carlton Bowen 8.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 38 total
Caroline Gleich (D)
2 endorsements · source
Organizations / unions (1)
  • Utah Democratic Party — [ 62 ]
Other (1)
  • Conrad Anker — professional rock climber [ 61 ]
John Curtis (R)
36 endorsements · source
Elected officials (13)
  • Donald Trump — 45th President of the United States (2017–2021) [ 32 ]
  • Kari Lake — former KSAZ-TV news anchor and nominee for governor of Arizona in 2022 [ 35 ]
  • Kash Patel — former chief of staff to the acting United States Secretary of Defense [ 31 ]
  • Mark Levin — Chief of Staff to the U.S. Attorney General (1988–1989) [ 30 ]
  • Mike Lee — U.S. Senator from Utah (2011–present) [ 48 ]
  • Mitch McConnell — U.S. Senator from Kentucky (1985–present), Senate Minority Leader (2007–2015, 2021–2025), and former Senate Majority Leader (2015–2021) [ 45 ]
  • Mitt Romney — incumbent U.S. Senator from Utah (2019–present) [ 47 ]
  • Rand Paul — U.S. Senator from Kentucky (2011–present) [ 33 ]
  • Senate Conservatives Fund — [ 40 ]
  • Spencer Cox — Governor of Utah (2021–present) [ 44 ]
  • Steve Daines — U.S. Senator from Montana (2015–present) [ 45 ]
  • Stuart Adams — ators, including senate president Stuart Adams [ 16 ]
  • Tommy Tuberville — U.S. Senator from Alabama (2021–present) [ 34 ]
Organizations / unions (6)
  • American Conservation Coalition — [ 22 ]
  • American Israel Public Affairs Committee — (AIPAC) [ 23 ] (previously endorsed Romney)
  • ClearPath Action Fund — [ 25 ]
  • Forward Party — [ 28 ]
  • Republican Main Street Partnership — PAC [ 27 ]
  • Utah Republican Party — [ 38 ]
Individuals / celebrities (1)
  • Charlie Kirk — founder and executive director of Turning Point USA [ 30 ]
Other (16)
  • 40 — 50%
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • BIPAC — [ 24 ]
  • Blake Moore — UT-01 (2021–present) [ 20 ]
  • Chris Stewart — UT-02 (2013–2023) [ 21 ]
  • Citizens United PVF — [ 39 ]
  • Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions — [ 26 ]
  • Fraternal Order of Police — olice [ 43 ]
  • Harmeet Dhillon — Republican National Committeewoman for California (2016–present) [ 30 ]
  • John Stockton — former Utah Jazz basketball player [ 37 ]
  • Republicans for National Renewal — [ 42 ]
  • Richard Grenell — former U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020) [ 29 ]
  • Turning Point Action — [ 41 ]
  • Vivek Ramaswamy — businessman and former 2024 presidential candidate [ 36 ]
  • [ 16 ] — te representatives [ 16 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-19
Total IE spending
$23.7M
For candidates
$23.6M
Against candidates
$90K
Latest filing: 10/19/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E
John Curtis (R)
$23.5M for · $90K against
Cash on hand
$789K
Total raised (cycle)
$5.7M
Total spent
$5.3M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Caroline Gleich (D)
$45K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$25K
Total raised (cycle)
$1.2M
Total spent
$1.2M
Debts
$12K
Source: FEC
Carlton Bowen (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$79
Total raised (cycle)
$31K
Total spent
$35K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

9 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
CNalysis Safe R Nov 21 — -18.0 —
The Cook Political Report Safe R Nov 9 — -18.0 —
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill Safe R Jun 8 — -18.0 —
Elections Daily Safe R May 4 — -18.0 —
538 Safe R Oct 23 — -18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe R Nov 9 — -18.0 —
RealClearPolitics Safe R Aug 5 — -18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Nov 9 — -18.0 —
Split Ticket Safe R Oct 23 — -18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 19 months ago (10/28/2024) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (3 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Likely R via pvi held 604d
  • 9/6/2024 Safe R R+34.0 via polls held 60d
  • 7/8/2024 Likely R via pvi