Races · Senate · 2024 · RI
Senate · class II · open seat

Sheldon Whitehouse vs Patricia Morgan

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Likely D — · 6 polls · 0 markets Last poll 554d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 6 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 6 results

6 of 6 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/2/2024University of New Hampshire1.00—(R+0.9)708—LV
554d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
Sheldon Whitehouse 54.0 · Patricia Morgan 40.0pollarch
9/20/2024Embold Research1.00—876—LV
no scored polls597d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 597d old
    Poll was fielded 597 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Sheldon Whitehouse 52.0 · Patricia Morgan 36.0pollarch
9/18/2024MassINC Polling Group1.00—800—LV
no scored polls599d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 599d old
    Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Sheldon Whitehouse 52.0 · Patricia Morgan 37.0pollarch
9/16/2024University of New Hampshire1.00—(R+0.9)683—LV
601d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 601d old
    Poll was fielded 601 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
Sheldon Whitehouse 51.0 · Patricia Morgan 33.0pollarch
9/8/2024University of Rhode Island1.00—500—A
no scored pollsadult sample+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • adult sample
    Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections.
  • 609d old
    Poll was fielded 609 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
Sheldon Whitehouse 52.0 · Patricia Morgan 24.0pollarch
6/14/2024Embold Research1.00—1405—LV
no scored polls695d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 695d old
    Poll was fielded 695 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Sheldon Whitehouse 48.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 13 total
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
13 endorsements · source
Elected officials (1)
  • Gabby Giffords — U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012) [ 7 ]
Organizations / unions (10)
  • American Israel Public Affairs Committee — (AIPAC) [ 8 ]
  • Council for a Livable World — [ 9 ]
  • Feminist Majority PAC — [ 11 ]
  • Humane Society Legislative Fund — [ 12 ]
  • J Street PAC — [ 14 ]
  • Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs — [ 13 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — [ 15 ]
  • Natural Resources Defense Council — [ 16 ]
  • Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 17 ]
  • Population Connection Action Fund — [ 18 ]
Other (2)
  • End Citizens United — [ 10 ]
  • Giffords — [ 7 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-08
Total IE spending
$728K
For candidates
$568K
Against candidates
$160K
Latest filing: 11/8/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E
Patricia Morgan (R)
$568K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$296K
Total spent
$296K
Debts
$42K
Source: FEC
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
$346 for · $160K against
Cash on hand
$1.3M
Total raised (cycle)
$4.9M
Total spent
$4.9M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

9 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
CNalysis Safe D Nov 21 — +18.0 —
The Cook Political Report Safe D Nov 9 — +18.0 —
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill Safe D Jun 8 — +18.0 —
Elections Daily Safe D May 4 — +18.0 —
538 Safe D Oct 23 — +18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe D Nov 9 — +18.0 —
RealClearPolitics Safe D Aug 5 — +18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D Nov 9 — +18.0 —
Split Ticket Safe D Oct 23 — +18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 18 months ago (11/2/2024) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (3 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Likely D via pvi held 589d
  • 9/21/2024 Safe D D+19.3 via polls held 75d
  • 7/8/2024 Likely D via pvi