Races · Senate · 2024 · New York
Senate · class I · open seat
Kirsten Gillibrand vs Mike Sapraicone
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+9) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+23.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+11.4 (10th pctile) to D+35.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +23.4
80% CI: D +11.4 → D +35.5 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 21 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+17.5 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 21 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 24 | Research Co.+1For · Research Co. | 450 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.450 tracked | -0.7aligned | 61 · 33 |
| Oct 27, 24 | ActiVote+1For · ActiVote | 400 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.926 tracked | +1.0aligned | 60 · 40 |
| Oct 26, 24 | Cygnal | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.954 tracked | +1.2aligned | 58 · 39 |
| Oct 16, 24 | Siena College+1For · Siena College | 872 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 57 · 31 |
| Oct 16, 24 | YouGov | 1,089 · RV | D-LEAN | D +3.423 tracked | +2.2d lean | 57 · 32 |
| Sep 24, 24 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 50 · 33 |
| Sep 24, 24 | ActiVote+1For · ActiVote | 400 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.926 tracked | +1.0aligned | 60 · 40 |
| Sep 15, 24 | Siena College+1For · Siena College | 1,003 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 54 · 31 |
| Aug 4, 24 | ActiVote+1For · ActiVote | 400 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.926 tracked | +1.0aligned | 63 · 37 |
| Jul 31, 24 | Siena College+1For · Siena College | 1,199 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 56 · 33 |
Endorsements · 36 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet21
15
Endorsements tracked
Kirsten Gillibrand21 · 58%
Mike Sapraicone15 · 42%
Total36
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DKirsten Gillibrand21 endorsers
Most notable · Stuart Appelbaum · president of the Jewish Labor Committee (1998–present) and board member of the National Endowment for Democracy (2022–present)
Organizations14
Organizations · 14
- AFL–CIO · k State AFL–CIO
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee · (AIPAC)
- District Council 37
- Feminist Majority PAC
- Humane Society Legislative Fund
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- New York State Democratic Committee
- New York State Nurses Association
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection Action Fund
- Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union
Other6
Other · 6
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Stonewall Democratic Club of New York City
- Vote Mama
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Stuart Appelbaum · president of the Jewish Labor Committee (1998–present) and board member of the National Endowment for Democracy (2022–present)
RMike Sapraicone15 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Elected officials8
Federal 5State 2Local 1
Elected officials · 8
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
- George Pataki · former governor of New York
- Greg Abbott · governor of Texas (2015–present)
- Anthony D'Esposito · U.S. representative NY-04
- George Santos · former U.S. representative for New York's 3rd congressional district (Independent)
- Mike Lawler · U.S. representative NY-17
- Nick LaLota · U.S. representative NY-01
- Rudy Giuliani · former mayor of New York City
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- Nassau County · Republican Party
- Queens · Republican Party
- Staten Island Republican Party
- Suffolk County · Republican Party
- Westchester County · Republican Party
Other2
Other · 2
- New York Young Republican Club
- Roger Stone · former advisor to Donald Trump
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-30Kirsten GillibrandS0NY00410 ↗
Receipts
$9.8M
Disburse
$14.1M
Cash on hand
$715.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$102.6K
Lawyers / law firms · $102.6K
- Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP · $32.1K
- Latham & Watkins LLP · $29.9K
- Davis Polk & Wardwell · $22.8K
- Davis Polk · $17.8K
Individuals $102.6K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$24.4K
Securities & investment · $24.4K
- Apollo Global Management · $24.4K
Individuals $24.4K · PACs $0
Top contributors
CORNING INCORPORATED$95.1K
COINBASE$49.1K
DAVIS POLK & WARDWELL LLP$32.1K
LATHAM & WATKINS LLP$29.9K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$24.4K
Mike Sapraicone
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$54.4K
Debts
$635.2K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
CITRIN COOPERMAN$9.9K
GUGLIELMI ENTERPRISE INC$7.1K
AMERICAN RECYCLING$7.0K
LA STRADA GENERAL CONTRACTING CORP$6.6K
BLUE STAR SECURITY, LLC$6.6K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$88.8K
D side
$88.8K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
WE ACT 4 CHANGE
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WE ACT 4 CHANGE pac · boosts D
| D | $88.0K | 99% | for Kirsten Gillibrand |
| MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $768.6 | 1% | for Kirsten Gillibrand |
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $39.72 | 0% | for Kirsten Gillibrand |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Kirsten Gillibrand |
Editorial ratings · 9 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D9
Safe D · 9 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 20
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 8
- Decision Desk HQ / The Hill · Jun 7
- Elections Daily · May 3
- 538 · Oct 22
- Inside Elections · Nov 8
- RealClearPolitics · Aug 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 8
- Split Ticket · Oct 22
CNalysis
Safe DThe Cook Political Report
Safe DDecision Desk HQ / The Hill
Safe DElections Daily
Safe D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified21 / 21deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-30
Endorsements36 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks