| 11/3/2024 | Victory Insights | 0.55 | L(D+4.0) | 600 | — | LV | 🟡553d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟡
553d old Poll was fielded 553 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 7 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Martin Heinrich 50.0 · Nella Domenici 48.0 | pollarch |
| 10/18/2024 | Research & Polling Inc. * | 1.86 | neutral(R+0.7) | 1024 | — | LV | 🟡569d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
569d old Poll was fielded 569 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 8 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
weight 1.86 Aggregation weight is 1.86 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
| Martin Heinrich 51.0 · Nella Domenici 40.0 | pollarch |
| 9/18/2024 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 619 | — | LV | 🟡599d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
599d old Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Martin Heinrich 47.0 · Nella Domenici 34.0 | pollarch |
| 9/13/2024 | Research & Polling Inc. * | 1.86 | neutral(R+0.7) | 532 | — | LV | 🟡604d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
604d old Poll was fielded 604 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 8 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
weight 1.86 Aggregation weight is 1.86 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
| Martin Heinrich 50.0 · Nella Domenici 38.0 | pollarch |
| 9/9/2024 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1.00 | —(D+5.3) | 521 | — | LV | 🟡608d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
608d old Poll was fielded 608 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Martin Heinrich 47.0 · Nella Domenici 37.0 | pollarch |
| 8/28/2024 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1.00 | —(D+5.3) | 488 | — | LV | 🟡620d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
620d old Poll was fielded 620 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Martin Heinrich 43.0 · Nella Domenici 33.0 | pollarch |
| 8/22/2024 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 965 | — | RV | 🟡626d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
626d old Poll was fielded 626 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Martin Heinrich 49.0 · Nella Domenici 37.0 | pollarch |
| 8/15/2024 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1.00 | —(D+5.3) | 453 | — | LV | 🟡633d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
633d old Poll was fielded 633 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Martin Heinrich 42.0 · Nella Domenici 36.0 | pollarch |
| 8/3/2024 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1.00 | —(D+5.3) | 493 | — | LV | 🟡645d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
645d old Poll was fielded 645 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Martin Heinrich 40.0 · Nella Domenici 34.0 | pollarch |
| 6/24/2024 | 1892 Polling | 1.00 | R | 600 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡685d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
685d old Poll was fielded 685 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Martin Heinrich 46.0 · Nella Domenici 42.0 | pollarch |
| 6/14/2024 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 555 | — | unknown | 🟡695d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+2- 🟡
695d old Poll was fielded 695 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Martin Heinrich 47.0 · Nella Domenici 40.0 | pollarch |
| 5/19/2024 | Red Oak Strategies | 1.00 | R | 1800 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡721d old+4- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
721d old Poll was fielded 721 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: National Review Commissioned by National Review, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
n=1,800 Sample size of 1,800 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Martin Heinrich 41.0 · Nella Domenici 38.0 | pollarch |