Races · Senate · 2024 · North Dakota
Senate · class I · open seat
Katrina Christiansen vs Kevin Cramer
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+20) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+40.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+52.0 (10th pctile) to R+28.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +40.0
80% CI: R +52.0 → R +28.0 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 6 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+32.9 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 6 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 24 | WPA Intelligence+1For · North Dakota News Cooperative shows | 500 · LV | R-LEAN | — | -1.2aligned | 29 · 51 |
| Sep 25, 24 | Lake Research Partners+1 | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +17.7noisy | 40 · 49 |
| Sep 23, 24 | WPA IntelligenceFor · InForum | 521 · LV | R-LEAN | — | -1.2aligned | 31 · 60 |
| Aug 1, 24 | Lake Research Partners+1 | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +17.7noisy | 38 · 51 |
| Jun 18, 24 | Public Opinion Strategies+1 | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +7.33 tracked | -2.7r lean | 28 · 65 |
| Oct 3, 23 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 419 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 19 · 45 |
Endorsements · 11 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet6
5
Endorsements tracked
Katrina Christiansen6 · 55%
Kevin Cramer5 · 45%
Total11
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DKatrina Christiansen6 endorsers
Most notable · National Organization for Women · PAC
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- National Organization for Women · PAC
- National Women's Political Caucus
- North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party
Other3
Other · 3
- Roger Johnson · former North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner (1996–2009)
- Sarah Vogel · former North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner (1989–1997)
- Vote Common Good
RKevin Cramer5 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee · (AIPAC)
- ClearPath Action Fund
- International Franchise Association
- North Dakota Republican Party
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-13Kevin CramerS8ND00120 ↗
Receipts
$5.6M
Disburse
$3.6M
Cash on hand
$2.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Oil & gas$32.6K
Oil & gas · $32.6K
- Energy Transfer · $32.6K
Individuals $32.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
CURALEAF$36.4K
ENERGY TRANSFER$32.6K
SANFORD HEALTH$21.6K
GENERAL ATOMICS$17.7K
HESS CORPORATION$17.0K
Katrina ChristiansenS2ND00123 ↗
Receipts
$3.1M
Disburse
$3.1M
Cash on hand
$8.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Internet$5.4K
Internet · $5.4K
- Mead Metals · $5.4K
Individuals $5.4K · PACs $0
Health professionals$5.0K
Health professionals · $5.0K
- Community Medical Services · $5.0K
Individuals $5.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
NYU$11.3K
ICSI$6.6K
SANFORD HEALTH SYSTEMS$6.0K
MEAD METALS$5.4K
COMMUNITY MEDICAL SERVICES$5.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$130.2K
D side
$998.76 · 1%
R side
$129.2K · 99%
Top spender
AMERICAN HOSPITAL A…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICAN HOSPITAL ASSOCIATION PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $75.1K | 58% | for Kevin Cramer |
| CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $50.4K | 39% | for Kevin Cramer |
| NORTH DAKOTA FARM BUREAU POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE pac · boosts R
| R | $2.5K | 2% | for Kevin Cramer |
| NORTH DAKOTA REPUBLICAN PARTY party · boosts R
| R | $1.2K | 1% | for Kevin Cramer |
| FORWARD BLUE super pac · boosts D
| D | $992.1 | 1% | for Katrina Christiansen |
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $6.66 | 0% | for Katrina Christiansen |
Editorial ratings · 9 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R9
Safe R · 9 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 20
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 8
- Decision Desk HQ / The Hill · Jun 7
- Elections Daily · May 3
- 538 · Oct 22
- Inside Elections · Nov 8
- RealClearPolitics · Aug 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 8
- Split Ticket · Oct 22
CNalysis
Safe RThe Cook Political Report
Safe RDecision Desk HQ / The Hill
Safe RElections Daily
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified5 / 6deterministic
Polls flagged1needs review
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-13
Endorsements11 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks