Races · Senate · 2024 · Montana
Senate · class I · open seat
Jon Tester vs Tim Sheehy
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 81% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+5.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+17.3 (10th pctile) to D+6.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 81% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +5.3
80% CI: R +17.3 → D +6.7 · win prob 19%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 23 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+7.1 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 23 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 24 | AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel | 752 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.330 tracked | -4.0r lean | 39 · 50 |
| Oct 24, 24 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 48 · 51 |
| Oct 15, 24 | MSU Billings | 760 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 43 · 43 |
| Oct 7, 24 | New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times | 656 · LV | D-LEAN | D +4.16 tracked | +2.0aligned | 44 · 52 |
| Sep 30, 24 | Public Opinion Strategies+1 | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +7.33 tracked | -2.7r lean | 45 · 51 |
| Sep 19, 24 | Remington Research Group+1 | 800 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.211 tracked | +1.6aligned | 44 · 52 |
| Sep 18, 24 | RMG Research | 491 · LV | D-LEAN | D +6.68 tracked | +2.6d lean | 43 · 50 |
| Aug 28, 24 | Fabrizio Ward (R)/David Binder ResearchFor · AARP | 600 · LV | D-LEAN | — | — | 45 · 51 |
| Aug 19, 24 | Public Opinion Strategies+1 | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +7.33 tracked | -2.7r lean | 44 · 51 |
| Aug 19, 24 | Rasmussen ReportsFor · Rasmussen Reports | 835 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.9124 tracked | -0.9aligned | 43 · 50 |
Endorsements · 25 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet25
Endorsements tracked
Jon Tester25 · 100%
Tim Sheehy0 · 0%
Total25
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJon Tester25 endorsers
Most notable · Marc Racicot · former governor of Montana (1993–2001) and former chair of the Republican National Committee (2001–2003) (Republican)
Organizations15
Organizations · 15
- AFL-CIO · AFL-CIO
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee · (AIPAC)
- Association of Flight Attendants
- Council for a Livable World
- Feminist Majority Foundation · PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters
- Montana Federation of Public Employees
- National Education Association
- National Organization for Women · PAC
- National Treasury Employees Union
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection Action Fund
Elected officials5
Federal 1State 4Local 0
Elected officials · 5
- Marc Racicot · former governor of Montana (1993–2001) and former chair of the Republican National Committee (2001–2003) (Republican)
- Andy Beshear · governor of Kentucky (2019–present)
- Brian Schweitzer · former governor of Montana (2005–2013)
- Joe Manchin · U.S. senator from West Virginia (2010–2025) (Independent; Democrat until 2024)
- Bob Brown · former attorney general of Montana (2001–2005) (Republican)
Other5
Other · 5
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- End Citizens United
- Peace Action
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Swing Left
RTim Sheehy0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-31Jon TesterS6MT00162 ↗
Receipts
$93.6M
Disburse
$95.7M
Cash on hand
$765.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$162.3K
Securities & investment · $162.3K
- Goldman Sachs · $77.6K
- Blackrock · $45.3K
- Blackstone · $39.4K
Individuals $162.3K · PACs $0
Internet$102.1K
Internet · $102.1K
- Google · $102.1K
Individuals $102.1K · PACs $0
Education$82.7K
Education · $82.7K
- University of Montana · $45.8K
- Harvard University · $36.9K
Individuals $82.7K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$72.1K
Computers / electronics · $72.1K
- Microsoft · $72.1K
Individuals $72.1K · PACs $0
Top contributors
GOOGLE$102.1K
GOLDMAN SACHS$77.6K
MICROSOFT$72.1K
MOTLEY RICE LLC$67.6K
MASTERCARD$67.4K
Tim SheehyS4MT00183 ↗
Receipts
$30.0M
Disburse
$28.6M
Cash on hand
$1.4M
Debts
$1.7M
Top industries
Securities & investment$181.5K
Securities & investment · $181.5K
- Blackstone · $181.5K
Individuals $181.5K · PACs $0
Real estate$22.8K
Real estate · $22.8K
- Real Estate · $22.8K
Individuals $22.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE$181.5K
WCAS$45.3K
YELLOWSTONE BANK$40.1K
MATRIX$34.2K
JIM CLICK AUTOMOTIVE$26.4K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$16.2M
D side
$8.7M · 54%
R side
$7.5M · 46%
Top spender
AMERICANS FOR PROSP…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $6.3M | 39% | against Jon Tester |
| CFFE PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $2.5M | 15% | for Jon Tester |
| WINSENATE super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.6M | 10% | against Tim Sheehy |
| MONTANA OUTDOOR VALUES ACTION FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.5M | 9% | for Jon Tester |
| OUR FUTURE UNITED super pac · boosts D
| D | $800.0K | 5% | for Jon Tester |
| LAST BEST PLACE PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $773.6K | 5% | against Tim Sheehy |
| MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT super pac · boosts R
| R | $516.8K | 3% | for Tim Sheehy |
| ORGANIZING EMPOWERMENT PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $402.5K | 2% | for Jon Tester |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $185.5K | 1% | for Tim Sheehy |
Editorial ratings · 8 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tilt R2
Tilt R · 2 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 3
- Inside Elections · Sep 11
Lean R5
Lean R · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Sep 11
- Elections Daily · Aug 8
- RealClearPolitics · Sep 11
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Sep 5
- Split Ticket · Oct 22
Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- Decision Desk HQ / The Hill · Oct 19
CNalysis
Tilt RThe Cook Political Report
Lean RDecision Desk HQ / The Hill
Likely RElections Daily
Lean RInside Elections
Tilt RRealClearPolitics
Lean RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RSplit Ticket
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified23 / 23deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-31
Endorsements25 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks