Ty Pinkins vs Roger Wicker
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Likely R
Polling average
All polls · 1 results
| End | Pollster | Weight | Lean | Sample | MoE | Pop | Trust signals | Results | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/3/2024 | Change Research | 0.61 | L(D+3.7) | 565 | — | LV | historical bias D+3.7pt584d old+3
| Roger Wicker 48.0 · Ty Pinkins 35.0 | pollarch |
Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.
Endorsements
Source · Wikipedia · 10 totalElected officials (1)
- Donald Trump — 45th president of the United States (2017–2021) [ 5 ]
Organizations / unions (2)
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee — (AIPAC) [ 6 ]
- National Right to Life Committee — [ 7 ]
Other (4)
- Burton — 50–60%
- United States Chamber of Commerce — [ 8 ]
- Wicker — 40–50%
- With Honor Fund — [ 9 ]
Organizations / unions (1)
- Population Connection Action Fund — [ 15 ]
Other (2)
- Freethought Equality Fund — [ 14 ]
- Vote Common Good — [ 16 ]
Money in this race
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-06Source: FEC Schedule E
- $693K for ELECT PRINCIPLED VETERANS FUND (EPV FUND) Super PAC
- $122K for CONSERVATIVE LEADERS OF AMERICA Super PAC
- $44K against AMERICA FIRST PRIORITIES PAC Super PAC
- $27K for COMMON SENSE FOR AMERICA PAC PAC
Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
9 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNalysis | Safe R | Nov 21 | — | -18.0 | — |
| The Cook Political Report | Safe R | Nov 9 | — | -18.0 | — |
| Decision Desk HQ / The Hill | Safe R | Jun 8 | — | -18.0 | — |
| Elections Daily | Safe R | May 4 | — | -18.0 | — |
| 538 | Safe R | Oct 23 | — | -18.0 | — |
| Inside Elections | Safe R | Nov 9 | — | -18.0 | — |
| RealClearPolitics | Safe R | Aug 5 | — | -18.0 | — |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | Nov 9 | — | -18.0 | — |
| Split Ticket | Safe R | Oct 23 | — | -18.0 | — |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
Rating history (1 change)
- 7/8/2024 Likely R via pvi