Races · Senate · 2024 · Mississippi
Senate · class I · open seat
Ty Pinkins vs Roger Wicker
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+25.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+37.6 (10th pctile) to R+13.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +25.6
80% CI: R +37.6 → R +13.6 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+25.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | Change Research+1For · Google Docs | 565 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.718 tracked | +5.7noisy | 35 · 48 |
Endorsements · 10 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet3
7
Endorsements tracked
Ty Pinkins3 · 30%
Roger Wicker7 · 70%
Total10
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RRoger Wicker7 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Other4
Other · 4
- Burton · 50–60%
- United States Chamber of Commerce
- Wicker · 40–50%
- With Honor Fund
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee · (AIPAC)
- National Right to Life Committee
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
DTy Pinkins3 endorsers
Most notable · Population Connection Action Fund
Other2
Other · 2
- Freethought Equality Fund
- Vote Common Good
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Population Connection Action Fund
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-06Roger WickerS8MS00196 ↗
Receipts
$7.4M
Disburse
$7.0M
Cash on hand
$3.0M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Electric utilities$26.6K
Electric utilities · $26.6K
- Edison Chouest Offshore, LLC · $26.6K
Individuals $26.6K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$24.6K
Securities & investment · $24.6K
- Apollo Global Management · $24.6K
Individuals $24.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
CM12$36.3K
HORNE$32.5K
EDISON CHOUEST OFFSHORE, LLC$26.6K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$24.6K
HII$23.6K
Ty Pinkins
Receipts
$1.0M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$5.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$13.4K
Education · $13.4K
- Mississippi State University · $7.1K
- Sumitomo Corporation of Americas · $3.3K
- Louisiana State University · $3.0K
Individuals $13.4K · PACs $0
Top contributors
MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY$7.1K
SINCERE HOME CARE LLC$3.5K
TCS INDUSTRIES$3.3K
SUMITOMO CORPORATION OF AMERICAS$3.3K
PAUL WEISS RIFKIND WHARTON & GARRISON$3.3K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$886.2K
D side
$43.8K · 5%
R side
$842.4K · 95%
Top spender
ELECT PRINCIPLED VE…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELECT PRINCIPLED VETERANS FUND (EPV FUND) super pac · boosts R
| R | $693.3K | 78% | for Roger Wicker |
| CONSERVATIVE LEADERS OF AMERICA super pac · boosts R
| R | $122.2K | 14% | for Roger Wicker |
| AMERICA FIRST PRIORITIES PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $43.8K | 5% | against Roger Wicker |
| COMMON SENSE FOR AMERICA PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $26.9K | 3% | for Roger Wicker |
Editorial ratings · 9 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R9
Safe R · 9 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 20
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 8
- Decision Desk HQ / The Hill · Jun 7
- Elections Daily · May 3
- 538 · Oct 22
- Inside Elections · Nov 8
- RealClearPolitics · Aug 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 8
- Split Ticket · Oct 22
CNalysis
Safe RThe Cook Political Report
Safe RDecision Desk HQ / The Hill
Safe RElections Daily
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-06
Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks