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Races · Senate · 2024 · Missouri
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Senate · class I · open seat

Lucas Kunce vs Josh Hawley

← Minnesota SenateMississippi Senate →
Safe RR +16.2 forecast· 16 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Kunce (D)
99% Hawley (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +16.2 · 80% CI R+28.2 → R+4.2
Actual result R+13.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+16.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+28.2 (10th pctile) to R+4.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +16.2
80% CI: R +28.2 → R +4.2 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used16
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+13.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

30354045505560HAWLEY 52.5KUNCE 42.1AUG '23MAR '24NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 16 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 2, 24Research Co.+1For · Research Co.450 · LVNEUTRALD +1.450 tracked-0.7aligned41 · 52
Oct 26, 24ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned44 · 56
Oct 25, 24GQR+1600 · LVNEUTRAL—+12.8d lean46 · 49
Oct 22, 24Emerson College+1620 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned41 · 51
Sep 30, 24ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned46 · 54
Sep 12, 24Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling850 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned40 · 51
Sep 12, 24Change Research+1For · Change Research1,237 · RVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy41 · 46
Sep 11, 24GQR Research+2For · Newsweek645 · LVD-LEAN—+6.0noisy46 · 50
Sep 4, 24Remington Research Group+1For · Remington816 · LVNEUTRALD +0.211 tracked+1.6aligned37 · 52
Aug 15, 24YouGov/Saint Louis University900 · LVNEUTRAL——42 · 53
Jun 18, 24Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned38 · 47
Mar 7, 24Remington Research Group+1For · Remington713 · LVNEUTRALD +0.211 tracked+1.6aligned39 · 53
Jan 27, 24Emerson College+2For · Emerson Polling1,830 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned30 · 43
Oct 30, 23Show Me Victories+1For · Show Me Victories407 · RVD-LEAN—+19.9d lean42 · 46
Oct 3, 23Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling491 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned32 · 45
Aug 18, 23GQR Research+1863 · LVD-LEAN—+6.0noisy43 · 44
· 16 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
Hawley · 100%2
RJosh Hawley2 endorsers
Most notable · Senate Conservatives Fund
Elected officials1
Organizations1
DLucas Kunce0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-19
Lucas KunceS2MO00528 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Josh HawleyS8MO00160 ↗
Receipts
$13.8M
Disburse
$17.5M
Cash on hand
$298.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$19.0K
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$130.6K
KIRKLAND & ELLIS LLP$19.0K
PRIME INC.$18.2K
HERZOG$16.5K
NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL$14.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$11.5M
D side
$3.7M · 32%
R side
$7.8M · 68%
Top spender
SHOW-ME STRONG PAC
For / against split
For Kunce $482.8
Against Hawley $3.7M
Against Kunce $6.0M
For Hawley $1.8M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
SHOW-ME STRONG PACR$6.0M52%against Lucas Kunce
PATRIOTS PREVAIL PACD$3.7M32%against Josh Hawley
SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDR$1.3M11%for Josh Hawley
SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTIONR$444.7K4%for Josh Hawley
PROTECT AMERICAN VALUES PACR$45.0K0%for Josh Hawley
INDIVISIBLE ACTIOND$262.80%for Lucas Kunce
THE PEOPLE UNITED PACD$2200%for Lucas Kunce

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R2
Safe R7
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 20
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 8
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill
Likely R
Aug 25
Elections Daily
Safe R
May 3
538
Safe R
Oct 25
Inside Elections
Safe R
Nov 8
RealClearPolitics
Likely R
Aug 4
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified16 / 16deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-19
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks