Races · Senate · 2024 · Maine
Senate · class I · open seat
David Costello vs Demi Kouzounas
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+18.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+30.6 (10th pctile) to R+6.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +18.6
80% CI: R +30.6 → R +6.7 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 5 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | Angus King +17.4 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 5 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire | 1,485 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 7 · 35 |
| Oct 28 | SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA | 1,079 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.194 tracked | -0.5aligned | 8 · 28 |
| Sep 14 | Pan Atlantic Research+1 | 812 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +6.9decoupled | 8 · 23 |
| Aug 18 | University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire | 951 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 9 · 33 |
| Apr 29 | Digital Research | 609 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 12 · 28 |
Endorsements · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet2
Endorsements tracked
David Costello0 · 0%
Demi Kouzounas2 · 100%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RDemi Kouzounas2 endorsers
Most notable · Paul LePage · Former Governor of Maine (2011–2019)
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Paul LePage · Former Governor of Maine (2011–2019)
- Bruce Poliquin · Former U.S. Representative (2015–2019)
IAngus King0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDavid Costello0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-18Angus KingS2ME00109 ↗
Receipts
$5.4M
Disburse
$5.4M
Cash on hand
$238.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Internet$18.3K
Internet · $18.3K
- Google · $18.3K
Individuals $18.3K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$13.2K
Lawyers / law firms · $13.2K
- Clifford Law Offices · $13.2K
Individuals $13.2K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$13.2K
Computers / electronics · $13.2K
- Microsoft Corporation · $13.2K
Individuals $13.2K · PACs $0
Top contributors
BERNSTEIN SHUR$18.8K
GOOGLE$18.3K
GENERAL DYNAMICS$15.8K
COONEY & CONWAY$14.2K
CLIFFORD LAW OFFICES$13.2K
Demi Kouzounas
Receipts
$1.0M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$640.3K
Top industries
Publishing / news$6.6K
Publishing / news · $6.6K
- US Postal Service · $6.6K
Individuals $6.6K · PACs $0
Real estate$3.0K
Real estate · $3.0K
- Carbutti & CO., Realtors LLC · $3.0K
Individuals $3.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
DUNSTAN DENTAL CENTER$19.8K
CARBUTTI & CO$13.2K
PHOENIX BANK DEVELOPMENT$12.0K
RDR INC$6.6K
US POSTAL SERVICE$6.6K
David Costello
Receipts
$111.3K
Disburse
$111.6K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$1.3K
Lawyers / law firms · $1.3K
- The Quinlan Law Pirm LLP · $1.0K
- The Quinian Law Firm · $250
Individuals $1.3K · PACs $0
Education$500
Education · $500
- US Naval Academy · $250
- Bowdoin College · $250
Individuals $500 · PACs $0
TV / movies / music$250
TV / movies / music · $250
- Nbc Sports Group · $250
Individuals $250 · PACs $0
Top contributors
THE QUINLAN LAW PIRM LLP$1.0K
SINGLE SOURCING SOLUTIONS$700
DOT QUALITY SERVICES$500
BALTIMORE COUNTY$250
NBC SPORTS GROUP$250
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$0
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
NATIONAL ASSOCIATIO…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE pac · boosts R
| I | $49.1K | 0% | for Angus King |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts R
| I | $10 | 0% | for Angus King |
Demographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified5 / 5deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-18
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks