Races · Senate · 2024 · Indiana
Senate · class I · open seat
Valerie McCray vs Jim Banks
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+21.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+33.2 (10th pctile) to R+9.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +21.2
80% CI: R +33.2 → R +9.2 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 5 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+19.9 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 5 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 24 | ActiVote+1For · ActiVote | 400 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.926 tracked | +1.0aligned | 43 · 57 |
| Oct 4, 24 | ActiVote+1For · ActiVote | 400 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.926 tracked | +1.0aligned | 44 · 56 |
| Sep 24, 24 | ARW StrategiesFor · IndyPolitics.Org | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 35 · 49 |
| Sep 12, 24 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 33 · 47 |
| Oct 3, 23 | Emerson College+1 | 462 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 22 · 31 |
Endorsements · 38 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet1
37
Endorsements tracked
Valerie McCray1 · 3%
Jim Banks37 · 97%
Total38
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJim Banks37 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Elected officials26
Federal 22State 4Local 0
Elected officials · 26
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
- Mitch McConnell · U.S. senator from Kentucky (1985–present), Senate Minority Leader (2021–2025), and former Senate Majority Leader (2015–2021)
- Suzanne Crouch · Lieutenant Governor of Indiana (2017–2025)
- Bill Hagerty · U.S. senator from Tennessee (2021–present)
- Cynthia Lummis · U.S. senator from Wyoming (2021–present)
- JD Vance · U.S. senator from Ohio (2023–2025)
- John Barrasso · U.S. senator from Wyoming (2007–present)
- John Thune · U.S. senator from South Dakota (2005–present)
- Kevin Cramer · U.S. senator from North Dakota (2019–present)
- Marco Rubio · U.S. senator from Florida (2011–2025)
- Marsha Blackburn · U.S. senator from Tennessee (2019–present)
- Mike Braun · U.S. senator from Indiana (2019–2025)
- Steve Daines · U.S. senator from Montana (2015–present)
- Ted Cruz · U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present)
- Tom Cotton · U.S. senator from Arkansas (2015–present)
- Tommy Tuberville · U.S. senator from Alabama (2021–present)
- Mike Pompeo · U.S. Secretary of State (2018–2021), Director of the CIA (2017–2018), and U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district (2011–2017)
- Elise Stefanik · U.S. representative for New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present)
- Erin Houchin · U.S. representative for Indiana's 9th congressional district (2023–present)
- Greg Pence · U.S. representative for Indiana's 6th congressional district (2019–2025)
- Justin Busch · state senator for the 16th district (2018–present)
- Larry Bucshon · U.S. representative for Indiana's 8th congressional district (2011–2025)
- Michelle Davis · state representative for the 54th district (2020–present)
- Ronny Jackson · U.S. representative for Texas's 13th congressional district (2021–present)
- Stephen Miller · Senior Advisor to the President (2017–2021)
- Susan Brooks · former U.S. representative for Indiana's 5th congressional district (2013–2021)
Other8
Other · 8
- AIPAC
- Catholic Vote
- Charlie Kirk · activist
- Club for Growth
- Eagle Forum
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America
- Turning Point Action
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Indiana Republican Party
- International Franchise Association
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Mark Levin · Host of The Mark Levin Show and Life, Liberty & Levin
DValerie McCray1 endorser
Most notable · Indiana AFL–CIO
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Indiana AFL–CIO
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-16Jim BanksS4IN00196 ↗
Receipts
$7.3M
Disburse
$6.1M
Cash on hand
$2.6M
Debts
$151.2K
Top industries
Securities & investment$46.7K
Securities & investment · $46.7K
- Blackstone · $32.6K
- Apollo Global Management · $14.1K
Individuals $46.7K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$13.9K
Lawyers / law firms · $13.9K
- Kirkland & Ellis LLP · $13.9K
Individuals $13.9K · PACs $0
Top contributors
CEO$43.5K
BLACKSTONE$32.6K
KPS CAPITAL PARTNERS$19.8K
AM GENERAL$15.8K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$14.1K
Valerie McCray
Receipts
$142.1K
Disburse
$137.7K
Cash on hand
$12.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$1.5K
Govt employees · $1.5K
- State of Indiana · $1.5K
Individuals $1.5K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$1.0K
Lawyers / law firms · $1.0K
- Bose Law · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
Commercial banks$870.11
Commercial banks · $870.11
- The Altruist Group · $870.11
Individuals $870.11 · PACs $0
Top contributors
SELF EMP$7.1K
IU HEALTH ARNETT$4.8K
JS CAPITAL LLC$3.3K
NOT EMP$2.9K
IU HEALTH$1.8K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$7.9M
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$7.9M · 100%
Top spender
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS super pac · boosts R
| R | $6.0M | 76% | for Jim Banks |
| AMERICAN LEADERSHIP PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.2M | 15% | for Jim Banks |
| CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $594.0K | 8% | for Jim Banks |
| CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $64.5K | 1% | for Jim Banks |
| INDIANA REPUBLICAN STATE COMMITTEE, INC. party · boosts R
| R | $2.1K | 0% | for Jim Banks |
Editorial ratings · 9 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R9
Safe R · 9 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 20
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 8
- Decision Desk HQ / The Hill · Jun 7
- Elections Daily · May 3
- 538 · Oct 22
- Inside Elections · Nov 8
- RealClearPolitics · Aug 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 8
- Split Ticket · Oct 22
CNalysis
Safe RThe Cook Political Report
Safe RDecision Desk HQ / The Hill
Safe RElections Daily
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified4 / 5deterministic
Polls flagged1needs review
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-16
Endorsements38 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks