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Races · Senate · 2024 · Hawaii
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Senate · class I · open seat

Mazie Hirono vs Bob McDermott

← Florida SenateIndiana Senate →
Safe DD +24.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Hirono (D)
1% McDermott (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +24.2 · 80% CI D+12.2 → D+36.2
Actual result D+32.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+14) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+24.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+12.2 (10th pctile) to D+36.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +24.2
80% CI: D +12.2 → D +36.2 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+32.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
DMazie Hirono0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RBob McDermott0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IShelby Billionaire0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
GEmma Pohlman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-29
Mazie HironoS2HI00106 ↗
Receipts
$3.3M
Disburse
$2.8M
Cash on hand
$1.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$57.9K
Top contributors
CLIFFORD LAW OFFICES$23.1K
POWER ROGERS, LLP$13.6K
KEEFE KEEFE & UNSELL, P.C.$13.4K
ANALYSIS GROUP$13.2K
NAN, INC.$13.2K
Bob McDermottOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$23.2K
Disburse
$23.6K
Cash on hand
$-244.64
Debts
$4.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
POSSO PIZZA$4.0K
DHA$420

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$6.1K
D side
$6.1K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF…
For / against split
For Hirono $6.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF HAWAIID$6.0K99%for Mazie Hirono
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTIOND$60.711%for Mazie Hirono
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Mazie Hirono

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D9
CNalysis
Safe D
Nov 20
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Nov 8
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill
Safe D
Jun 7
Elections Daily
Safe D
May 3
538
Safe D
Oct 22
Inside Elections
Safe D
Nov 8
RealClearPolitics
Safe D
Aug 4
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Nov 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-29
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks