Races · Senate · 2024 · DE
Senate · class II · open seat

Lisa Blunt Rochester vs Eric Hansen

Lean D · 1 polls · 0 markets Last poll 598d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D

lean-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 1 results

1 of 1 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
9/19/2024University of Delaware1.00400RV
no scored polls598d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 598d old
    Poll was fielded 598 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Lisa Blunt Rochester 52.0 · Eric Hansen 32.0 · Michael Katz 6.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 22 total
Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)
22 endorsements · source
Elected officials (2)
  • Chuck Schumer — Senate Majority Leader (2021–2025) from New York (1999–present) [ 10 ]
  • Gretchen Whitmer — governor of Michigan (2019–present) [ 12 ]
Organizations / unions (9)
  • Black Economic Alliance — PAC [ 14 ]
  • Council for a Livable World — [ 15 ]
  • Feminist Majority PAC — [ 18 ]
  • J Street PAC — [ 21 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — [ 22 ]
  • National Education Association — [ 27 ]
  • National Women's Political Caucus — [ 23 ]
  • Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 24 ]
  • Population Connection — Action Fund [ 25 ]
Individuals / celebrities (1)
  • Mark Hamill — actor [ 13 ]
Other (10)
  • Angela Alsobrooks — county executive of Prince George's County, Maryland (2018–2024) [ 11 ]
  • Barbara Lee — CA-12 (1998–2025) [ 11 ]
  • Carol Moseley Braun — Illinois (1993–1999) [ 9 ]
  • EMILY's List — [ 16 ]
  • End Citizens United — [ 17 ]
  • Giffords — [ 19 ]
  • Human Rights Campaign — [ 20 ]
  • Laphonza Butler — California (2023–2024) [ 9 ]
  • Reproductive Freedom for All — [ 26 ]
  • Tom Carper — Delaware (2001–2025) [ 2 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-27
Total IE spending
$31K
For candidates
$31K
Against candidates
$0
Latest filing: 11/27/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E
$31K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$144K
Total raised (cycle)
$9.9M
Total spent
$9.8M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Eric Hansen (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$1.0M
Total spent
$1.0M
Debts
$118K
Source: FEC
Michael Katz (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$32K
Total spent
$31K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

9 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
CNalysis Safe D Nov 21 +18.0
The Cook Political Report Safe D Nov 9 +18.0
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill Safe D Jun 8 +18.0
Elections Daily Safe D Nov 9 +18.0
538 Safe D Oct 23 +18.0
Inside Elections Safe D Nov 9 +18.0
RealClearPolitics Safe D Aug 5 +18.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D Jan 24 +18.0
Split Ticket Safe D Oct 23 +18.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 20 months ago (9/19/2024) last market quote rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (3 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Lean D via pvi held 589d
  • 9/21/2024 Safe D D+20.0 via polls held 75d
  • 7/8/2024 Lean D via pvi