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Races · Senate · 2024 · Delaware
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Senate · class I · open seat

Lisa Blunt Rochester vs Eric Hansen

Safe DD +20.9 forecast· 1 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Rochester (D)
1% Hansen (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +20.9 · 80% CI D+8.9 → D+32.9
Actual result D+17.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+20.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+8.9 (10th pctile) to D+32.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +20.9
80% CI: D +8.9D +32.9 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used1
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+17.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

510152025303540455055ROCHESTER 52.0HANSEN 32.0KATZ 6.0SEP '24SEP '24SEP '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 1 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Sep 18University of Delaware400 · RVNEUTRAL52 · 32

Endorsements · 22 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
22Rochester · 100%
DLisa Blunt Rochester22 endorsers
Most notable · Chuck Schumer · Senate Majority Leader (2021–2025) from New York (1999–present)
Other10
Organizations9
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Celebrity1
REric Hansen0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IMichael Katz0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-27
Lisa Blunt RochesterS4DE00060 ↗
Receipts
$9.9M
Disburse
$9.8M
Cash on hand
$144.5K
Debts
$0
Lawyers / law firms$60.0K
Securities & investment$28.5K
TV / movies / music$18.8K
YOUNG CONAWAY STARGATT & TAYLOR LLP$44.9K
KKR & COMPANY INC$28.5K
SALLIE MAE CORP$24.0K
COMCAST CORP$18.8K
CORNERSTONE GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS INC$16.9K
Eric HansenOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.0M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$118.0K
Lawyers / law firms$6.6K
DAVIS POLK$6.6K
ASSOCIATES INT.$5.4K
WILSONWALSH CONSULTING$3.4K
HUDSON MANAGEMENT$3.3K
ZOCHEM LLC$3.0K
Michael KatzOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$31.7K
Disburse
$31.5K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
No industry data.
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$30.8K
D side
$30.8K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
SEIU COPE (SERVICE …
For / against split
For Rochester $30.8K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)D$28.0K91%for Lisa Blunt Rochester
FIRST STATE STRONG FECD$2.5K8%for Lisa Blunt Rochester
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTIOND$178.711%for Lisa Blunt Rochester
GLOBAL DIASPORA PAC INCORPORATED; THED$91.410%for Lisa Blunt Rochester
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Lisa Blunt Rochester

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D9
CNalysis
Safe D
Nov 20
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Nov 8
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill
Safe D
Jun 7
Elections Daily
Safe D
Nov 8
538
Safe D
Oct 22
Inside Elections
Safe D
Nov 8
RealClearPolitics
Safe D
Aug 4
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jan 23
Split Ticket
Safe D
Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-27
Endorsements22 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks