Lisa Blunt Rochester vs Eric Hansen
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Lean D
Polling average
All polls · 1 results
| End | Pollster | Weight | Lean | Sample | MoE | Pop | Trust signals | Results | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/19/2024 | University of Delaware | 1.00 | — | 400 | — | RV | no scored polls598d old+2
| Lisa Blunt Rochester 52.0 · Eric Hansen 32.0 · Michael Katz 6.0 | pollarch |
Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.
Endorsements
Source · Wikipedia · 22 totalElected officials (2)
- Chuck Schumer — Senate Majority Leader (2021–2025) from New York (1999–present) [ 10 ]
- Gretchen Whitmer — governor of Michigan (2019–present) [ 12 ]
Organizations / unions (9)
- Black Economic Alliance — PAC [ 14 ]
- Council for a Livable World — [ 15 ]
- Feminist Majority PAC — [ 18 ]
- J Street PAC — [ 21 ]
- League of Conservation Voters — [ 22 ]
- National Education Association — [ 27 ]
- National Women's Political Caucus — [ 23 ]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 24 ]
- Population Connection — Action Fund [ 25 ]
Individuals / celebrities (1)
- Mark Hamill — actor [ 13 ]
Other (10)
- Angela Alsobrooks — county executive of Prince George's County, Maryland (2018–2024) [ 11 ]
- Barbara Lee — CA-12 (1998–2025) [ 11 ]
- Carol Moseley Braun — Illinois (1993–1999) [ 9 ]
- EMILY's List — [ 16 ]
- End Citizens United — [ 17 ]
- Giffords — [ 19 ]
- Human Rights Campaign — [ 20 ]
- Laphonza Butler — California (2023–2024) [ 9 ]
- Reproductive Freedom for All — [ 26 ]
- Tom Carper — Delaware (2001–2025) [ 2 ]
Money in this race
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-27Source: FEC Schedule E
- $28K for SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION) PAC
- $3K for FIRST STATE STRONG FEC Super PAC
- $179 for GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION Super PAC
- $91 for GLOBAL DIASPORA PAC INCORPORATED; THE Super PAC
- $10 for SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION Super PAC
Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
9 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNalysis | Safe D | Nov 21 | — | +18.0 | — |
| The Cook Political Report | Safe D | Nov 9 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Decision Desk HQ / The Hill | Safe D | Jun 8 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Elections Daily | Safe D | Nov 9 | — | +18.0 | — |
| 538 | Safe D | Oct 23 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | Nov 9 | — | +18.0 | — |
| RealClearPolitics | Safe D | Aug 5 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | Jan 24 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Split Ticket | Safe D | Oct 23 | — | +18.0 | — |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
Rating history (3 changes)
- 5/3/2026 Lean D via pvi held 589d
- 9/21/2024 Safe D D+20.0 via polls held 75d
- 7/8/2024 Lean D via pvi