Races · Senate · 2024 · Delaware
Senate · class I · open seat
Lisa Blunt Rochester vs Eric Hansen
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+20.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+8.9 (10th pctile) to D+32.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +20.9
80% CI: D +8.9 → D +32.9 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+17.1 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18 | University of Delaware | 400 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 52 · 32 |
Endorsements · 22 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet22
Endorsements tracked
Lisa Blunt Rochester22 · 100%
Eric Hansen0 · 0%
Total22
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DLisa Blunt Rochester22 endorsers
Most notable · Chuck Schumer · Senate Majority Leader (2021–2025) from New York (1999–present)
Other10
Other · 10
- Angela Alsobrooks · county executive of Prince George's County, Maryland (2018–2024)
- Barbara Lee · CA-12 (1998–2025)
- Carol Moseley Braun · Illinois (1993–1999)
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- Laphonza Butler · California (2023–2024)
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Tom Carper · Delaware (2001–2025)
Organizations9
Organizations · 9
- Black Economic Alliance · PAC
- Council for a Livable World
- Feminist Majority PAC
- J Street PAC
- League of Conservation Voters
- National Education Association
- National Women's Political Caucus
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection · Action Fund
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Chuck Schumer · Senate Majority Leader (2021–2025) from New York (1999–present)
- Gretchen Whitmer · governor of Michigan (2019–present)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Mark Hamill · actor
REric Hansen0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IMichael Katz0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-27Lisa Blunt RochesterS4DE00060 ↗
Receipts
$9.9M
Disburse
$9.8M
Cash on hand
$144.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$60.0K
Lawyers / law firms · $60.0K
- Young Conaway Stargatt & Taylor LLP · $44.9K
- State of Delaware · $15.1K
Individuals $60.0K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$28.5K
Securities & investment · $28.5K
- Kkr & Company INC · $28.5K
Individuals $28.5K · PACs $0
TV / movies / music$18.8K
TV / movies / music · $18.8K
- Comcast Corp · $18.8K
Individuals $18.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
YOUNG CONAWAY STARGATT & TAYLOR LLP$44.9K
KKR & COMPANY INC$28.5K
SALLIE MAE CORP$24.0K
COMCAST CORP$18.8K
CORNERSTONE GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS INC$16.9K
Eric Hansen
Receipts
$1.0M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$118.0K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$6.6K
Lawyers / law firms · $6.6K
- Davis Polk · $6.6K
Individuals $6.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
DAVIS POLK$6.6K
ASSOCIATES INT.$5.4K
WILSONWALSH CONSULTING$3.4K
HUDSON MANAGEMENT$3.3K
ZOCHEM LLC$3.0K
Michael Katz
Receipts
$31.7K
Disburse
$31.5K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$30.8K
D side
$30.8K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
SEIU COPE (SERVICE …
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION) pac · boosts D
| D | $28.0K | 91% | for Lisa Blunt Rochester |
| FIRST STATE STRONG FEC super pac · boosts D
| D | $2.5K | 8% | for Lisa Blunt Rochester |
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $178.71 | 1% | for Lisa Blunt Rochester |
| GLOBAL DIASPORA PAC INCORPORATED; THE super pac · boosts D
| D | $91.41 | 0% | for Lisa Blunt Rochester |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Lisa Blunt Rochester |
Editorial ratings · 9 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D9
Safe D · 9 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 20
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 8
- Decision Desk HQ / The Hill · Jun 7
- Elections Daily · Nov 8
- 538 · Oct 22
- Inside Elections · Nov 8
- RealClearPolitics · Aug 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jan 23
- Split Ticket · Oct 22
CNalysis
Safe DThe Cook Political Report
Safe DDecision Desk HQ / The Hill
Safe DElections Daily
Safe D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-27
Endorsements22 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks