Races · Senate · 2024 · Connecticut

Senate · class I · open seat

Chris Murphy vs Matthew Corey

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Safe DD +19.0 forecast· 1 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Murphy (D)
1% Corey (R)
Win probability
Chris Murphy99% (D)
Matthew Corey1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +19.0
80% CID+7.0 → D+31.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +19.0 · 80% CI D+7.0 → D+31.0
Actual result D+16.1 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+7) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+19.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+7.0 (10th pctile) to D+31.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +19.0

80% CI: D +7.0 → D +31.0 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	1
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+16.1
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
323640444852MURPHY 51.0COREY 35.0SEP '24SEP '24SEP '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 1 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Sep 17	MassINC Polling GroupFor · Connecticut Mirror	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	-1.3aligned	51 · 35

Endorsements · 15 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

13Murphy · 87%
Corey · 13%2
Endorsements tracked
Chris Murphy13 · 87%
Matthew Corey2 · 13%
Total15
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DChris Murphy13 endorsers

Most notable · Gabby Giffords · U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)

Organizations10

Other2

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

RMatthew Corey2 endorsers

Most notable · Connecticut Republican Party

Organizations1

Other1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-31

Matthew CoreyS8CT00121 ↗

Receipts

$257.7K

Disburse

$250.4K

Cash on hand

$7.2K

Debts

$10.0K

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$3.3K

Govt employees$1.3K

Internet$1.1K

Top contributors

0$24.8K

LUMAJ LAW OFFICE$3.3K

BEACON PRESCRIPTIONS$3.0K

LOLO LLC$2.9K

Z CONSTRUCTION$2.8K

Chris MurphyS2CT00132 ↗

Receipts

$12.8M

Disburse

$11.2M

Cash on hand

$5.5M

Debts

Top industries

Education$37.4K

Health professionals$24.1K

Securities & investment$23.5K

Lawyers / law firms$13.4K

Top contributors

YALE UNIVERSITY$37.4K

PAUL WEISS$31.3K

WCAS$24.7K

HARTFORD HEALTHCARE$24.1K

BLACKSTONE$23.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$110.2K

D side

$170.06 · 0%

R side

$110.0K · 100%

Top spender

SEAL PAC USA

For / against split

For Murphy $170.06

For Corey $110.0K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
SEAL PAC USA	R	$110.0K	100%	for Matthew Corey
MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION	D	$160.06	0%	for Chris Murphy
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Chris Murphy

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D9

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 20

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Nov 8

Decision Desk HQ / The Hill

Safe D

Jun 7

Elections Daily

Safe D

May 3

538

Safe D

Oct 22

Inside Elections

Safe D

Nov 8

RealClearPolitics

Safe D

Aug 4

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Nov 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified1 / 1deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-31

Endorsements15 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks