Chris Murphy vs Matthew Corey
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Lean D
Polling average
All polls · 1 results
| End | Pollster | Weight | Lean | Sample | MoE | Pop | Trust signals | Results | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/18/2024 | MassINC Polling Group | 1.00 | — | 800 | — | LV | no scored polls599d old+2
| Chris Murphy 51.0 · Matthew Corey 35.0 | pollarch |
Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.
Endorsements
Source · Wikipedia · 15 totalElected officials (1)
- Gabby Giffords — U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012) [ 3 ]
Organizations / unions (10)
- Connecticut Democratic Party — [ 14 ]
- Feminist Majority PAC — [ 4 ]
- Humane Society Legislative Fund — [ 5 ]
- J Street PAC — [ 8 ]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America — [ 6 ]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs — [ 7 ]
- League of Conservation Voters — [ 9 ]
- Natural Resources Defense Council — [ 10 ]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 11 ]
- Population Connection Action Fund — [ 12 ]
Other (2)
- Giffords — [ 3 ]
- Sierra Club — [ 13 ]
Organizations / unions (1)
- Connecticut Republican Party — [ 19 ]
Other (1)
- Republican Assembly — can Assembly [ 18 ]
Money in this race
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-31Source: FEC Schedule E
- $110K for SEAL PAC USA Super PAC
- $160 for MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION Super PAC
- $10 for SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION Super PAC
Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
9 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNalysis | Safe D | Nov 21 | — | +18.0 | — |
| The Cook Political Report | Safe D | Nov 9 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Decision Desk HQ / The Hill | Safe D | Jun 8 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Elections Daily | Safe D | May 4 | — | +18.0 | — |
| 538 | Safe D | Oct 23 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | Nov 9 | — | +18.0 | — |
| RealClearPolitics | Safe D | Aug 5 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | Nov 9 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Split Ticket | Safe D | Oct 23 | — | +18.0 | — |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
Rating history (3 changes)
- 5/3/2026 Lean D via pvi held 589d
- 9/21/2024 Safe D D+16.0 via polls held 75d
- 7/8/2024 Lean D via pvi