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Races · Senate · 2022 · Washington
Senate · class III · open seat

Patty Murray vs Tiffany Smiley

← Vermont SenateWisconsin Senate →
Likely DD +12.8 forecast· 43 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
98% Murray (D)
2% Smiley (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +12.8 · 80% CI D+0.8 → D+24.8
Actual result D+14.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 98% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+8) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+0.8 (10th pctile) to D+24.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +12.8
80% CI: D +0.8 → D +24.8 · win prob 98%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used43
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+14.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

303540455055MURRAY 49.9SMILEY 43.4MAY '21FEB '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 43 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 4, 22Moore Information Group+3For · Politico500 · LVR-LEANR +10.04 tracked-6.5r lean47 · 47
Nov 3, 22Moore Information Group+1500 · unknownR-LEANR +10.04 tracked-6.5r lean47 · 47
Oct 30, 22InsiderAdvantage+1550 · LVR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned48 · 46
Oct 27, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,207 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean49 · 48
Oct 26, 22Triton Polling & ResearchFor · Spokesman.com506 · LVR-LEAN——51 · 45
Oct 26, 22Trafalgar Group1,207 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean49 · 48
Oct 25, 22American Pulse Research & Polling506 · unknownNEUTRAL——51 · 45
Oct 21, 22Moore Information Group+2500 · LVR-LEANR +10.04 tracked-6.5r lean46 · 46
Oct 21, 22KAConsulting500 · LVR-LEANR +3.68 tracked-2.3r lean48 · 42
Oct 20, 22KAConsulting500 · unknownR-LEANR +3.68 tracked-2.3r lean48 · 42
Oct 20, 22Moore Information Group+1500 · unknownR-LEANR +10.04 tracked-6.5r lean46 · 46
Oct 19, 22co/efficientFor · co/efficient1,181 · LVR-LEANR +5.413 tracked-3.4r lean48 · 45
Oct 19, 22Public Policy Polling+1For · NPI's Cascadia Advocate782 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy52 · 42
Oct 18, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA589 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned49 · 41
Oct 18, 22Public Policy Polling782 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy52 · 42
Oct 18, 22co/efficient1,181 · unknownR-LEANR +5.413 tracked-3.4r lean48 · 45
Oct 17, 22CiviqsFor · Civiqs698 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean55 · 41
Oct 16, 22Civiqs698 · unknownD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean55 · 41
Oct 15, 22SurveyUSA589 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned49 · 41
Sep 30, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling782 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned51 · 42
Sep 29, 22Emerson College782 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned51 · 42
Sep 27, 22Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling770 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy52 · 40
Sep 26, 22OnMessage Inc.+1600 · LVNEUTRALR +0.25 tracked-4.1r lean46 · 42
Sep 26, 22Public Policy Polling770 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy52 · 40
Sep 24, 22Strategies 360500 · RVNEUTRALD +2.53 tracked+2.8d lean50 · 36
Sep 23, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,091 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean49 · 47
Sep 23, 22OnMessage Inc.600 · unknownNEUTRALR +0.25 tracked-4.1r lean46 · 42
Sep 22, 22Trafalgar Group1,091 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean49 · 47
Sep 14, 22Elway Research+1403 · LVNEUTRALD +1.83 tracked—50 · 37
Sep 13, 22Elway Research403 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.83 tracked—50 · 37
Sep 6, 22Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling620 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy48 · 39
Aug 31, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,087 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean49 · 46
Aug 16, 22McLaughlin & Associates+1500 · LVNEUTRALD +1.04 tracked-6.3noisy49 · 43
Aug 16, 22McLaughlin & Associates+1500 · LVNEUTRALD +1.04 tracked-6.3noisy44
Jul 10, 22Elway Research+1400 · RVNEUTRALD +1.83 tracked—53 · 33
Jul 9, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA596 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned51 · 33
Jun 18, 22The Tarrance Group+2600 · LVR-LEAND +1.13 tracked+0.3noisy48 · 43
Jun 1, 22Public Policy Polling+1For · NPI's Cascadia Advocate1,039 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy51 · 40
Feb 17, 22Public Policy Polling+1For · NPI's Cascadia Advocate700 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy50 · 41
Dec 27, 21Elway Research+1400 · RVNEUTRALD +1.83 tracked—42
Nov 10, 21Public Policy Polling+1For · NPI's Cascadia Advocate909 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy50 · 37
Oct 27, 21SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA542 · RVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned49 · 31
May 25, 21Public Policy Polling+1For · NPI's Cascadia Advocate992 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy53 · 37
· 43 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DPatty Murray0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RTiffany Smiley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-29
Tiffany SmileyS2WA00387 ↗
Receipts
$21.0M
Disburse
$20.8M
Cash on hand
$194.5K
Debts
$1.0M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Patty MurrayS2WA00189 ↗
Receipts
$16.1M
Disburse
$19.0M
Cash on hand
$558.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Computers / electronics$109.5K
Education$69.3K
Lawyers / law firms$21.4K
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON$69.3K
AMAZON$68.2K
MICROSOFT$41.3K
MICRODSOFT CORP$33.2K
TRIDENT SEAFOODS$27.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$69.2M
D side
$26.9M · 39%
R side
$42.2M · 61%
Top spender
EVERGREEN PRINCIPLE…
For / against split
For Murray $2.4M
Against Smiley $24.5M
Against Murray $31.2M
For Smiley $11.1M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
EVERGREEN PRINCIPLES PACR$26.0M38%against Patty Murray
WOMEN VOTE!D$21.5M31%against Tiffany Smiley
ESAFUNDR$9.3M13%against Patty Murray
OUR AMERICAN CENTURYR$6.9M10%for Tiffany Smiley
VOTEVETSD$2.9M4%against Tiffany Smiley
FAMILY FRIENDLY ACTION PACD$1.8M3%for Patty Murray
MOMSRISING TOGETHERD$209.8K0%for Patty Murray

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D6
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Oct 17
DDHQ
Likely D
Sep 11
The Economist
Likely D
Sep 6
538
Likely D
Oct 18
Inside Elections
Likely D
Jun 30
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Oct 18

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified29 / 43deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-29
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks